IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v96y2024ipbs1057521924004046.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign momentum currency returns

Author

Listed:
  • Calice, Giovanni
  • Lin, Ming-Tsung

Abstract

We study the relationship between cross-sectional sovereign credit risk and currency spot prices. We find that past (up to 12-month average) sovereign credit risk, measured by sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, predict future currency spot returns. In particular, we document a significant cross-sectional currency portfolio spread in excess of the risk-free rate of return (up to 9.6% p.a.) between the highest and the lowest quintile sovereign CDS spreads. Overall, our results indicate that sovereign credit risk is systematically important for currency returns. Moreover, the level of sovereign credit risk has a persistent effect on currency returns which is consistent with a sovereign momentum effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Calice, Giovanni & Lin, Ming-Tsung, 2024. "Sovereign momentum currency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924004046
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924004046
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103472?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Accominotti, Olivier & Cen, Jason & Chambers, David & Marsh, Ian W., 2019. "Currency Regimes and the Carry Trade," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 2233-2260, October.
    2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Carry Trade and Momentum in Currency Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 511-535, December.
    3. Augustin, Patrick, 2018. "The term structure of CDS spreads and sovereign credit risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 53-76.
    4. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A. & Ulrich, Joshua M., 2009. "The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 467-488, April.
    5. Meissner, Christopher M. & Oomes, Nienke, 2009. "Why do countries peg the way they peg? The determinants of anchor currency choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 522-547, April.
    6. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    8. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    9. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    10. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    12. Wang, Xinjie & Xiao, Yaqing & Yan, Hongjun & Zhang, Jinfan, 2021. "Under-reaction in the sovereign CDS market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    13. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    14. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2008. "Dissecting Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1653-1678, August.
    15. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    17. Jongsub Lee & Andy Naranjo & Stace Sirmans, 2021. "CDS Momentum: Slow-Moving Credit Ratings and Cross-Market Spillovers [Insider trading in credit derivatives]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 352-401.
    18. Augustin, Patrick & Tédongap, Roméo, 2016. "Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 541-587, April.
    19. Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 425-447, June.
    20. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    21. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    22. Kuntara Pukthuanthong-Le & Lee R. Thomas, 2008. "Weak-Form Efficiency in Currency Markets," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 64(3), pages 31-52, May.
    23. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    24. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate, 2015. "FX market liquidity, funding constraints and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 114-134.
    25. Karnaukh, Nina, 2016. "Currency Strategies and Sovereign Ratings," Working Papers on Finance 1620, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    26. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2000. "The forward premium puzzle: different tales from developed and emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 115-144, June.
    27. Sensoy, Ahmet & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Eraslan, Veysel, 2017. "Predictability dynamics of emerging sovereign CDS markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 5-9.
    28. Lettau, Martin & Maggiori, Matteo & Weber, Michael, 2014. "Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 197-225.
    29. Matias D. Cattaneo & Richard K. Crump & Max H. Farrell & Ernst Schaumburg, 2020. "Characteristic-Sorted Portfolios: Estimation and Inference," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 531-551, July.
    30. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Sadaba, Barbara, 2018. "Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-264.
    31. Momtchil Pojarliev, 2005. "Performance of Currency Trading Strategies in Developed and Emerging Markets: Some Striking Differences," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 297-311, October.
    32. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    33. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    34. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Exchange rate expectation, abnormal returns, and the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1-25.
    35. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    36. Giovanni Calice & Ming Zeng, 2021. "The term structure of sovereign credit default swap and the cross‐section of exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 445-458, January.
    37. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1027-1070, June.
    38. Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
    39. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2011. "A Simple Robust Link Between American Puts and Credit Protection," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 473-505.
    40. Olga Kolokolova & Ming-Tsung Lin & Ser-Huang Poon, 2019. "Rating-based CDS curves," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 689-723, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    3. Zhang, Shaojun, 2022. "Dissecting currency momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 154-173.
    4. Bartram, Söhnke & Djuranovik, Leslie & Garratt, Anthony, 2021. "Currency Anomalies," CEPR Discussion Papers 15653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Chen, Shu-Hsiu, 2017. "Carry trade strategies based on option-implied information: Evidence from a cross-section of funding currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-20.
    6. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Raza, Ahmad & Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2014. "Is there momentum or reversal in weekly currency returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-60.
    8. Mikhail Chernov & Magnus Dahlquist & Lars Lochstoer, 2023. "Pricing Currency Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 693-730, April.
    9. Atanasov, Victoria & Nitschka, Thomas, 2014. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 268-285.
    10. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    11. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: Trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 217-238.
    12. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
    13. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    14. Della Corte, Pasquale & Jeanneret, Alexandre & Patelli, Ella D.S., 2023. "A credit-based theory of the currency risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 473-496.
    15. Eriksen, Jonas N., 2019. "Cross-sectional return dispersion and currency momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 91-108.
    16. Melvin, Michael & Pan, Wenqiang & Wikstrom, Petra, 2020. "Retaining alpha: The effect of trade size and rebalancing frequency on FX strategy returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Zhuang, Chunjuan, 2018. "Improving performance of exchange rate momentum strategy using volatility information," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 741-753.
    18. Byrne, Joseph P. & Ibrahim, Boulis Maher & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2022. "The time-varying risk price of currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    19. Giovanni Calice & Ming Zeng, 2021. "The term structure of sovereign credit default swap and the cross‐section of exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 445-458, January.
    20. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1057521924004046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.