IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20232839.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The economic costs of supply chain decoupling

Author

Listed:
  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia
  • Boeckelmann, Lukas
  • Meunier, Baptiste

Abstract

As countries and firms increasingly seek ways to strengthen the resilience of their supply chains, this paper studies the global economic costs of a decoupling of global supply chains along geopolitical lines as well as in strategic sectors. We explore not only the long-run effects, but also the short-run costs stemming from rigid wages and low substitutability across factors of production and input goods. We find that, in terms of welfare losses, the costs of decoupling are roughly five times higher in the short-run compared to the long-run, while country losses are heterogeneous. A reshaping of global supply chains increases the level of consumer prices in most countries, as well as producer prices, especially for trade-intensive manufacturing sectors. Global supply chain decoupling entails also a reallocation of labour across skill levels. Finally, global trade would decrease substantially, driven by lower trade in intermediate inputs and a higher reliance of countries on domestic production. JEL Classification: F12, F13, F14, F51, F62

Suggested Citation

  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Boeckelmann, Lukas & Meunier, Baptiste, 2023. "The economic costs of supply chain decoupling," Working Paper Series 2839, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232839
    Note: 930374
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2839~aaf35001a3.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881469, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Silvana Tenreyro & Ludovica Ambrosino & Jenny Chan, 2024. "Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 1225, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ludovic Panon & Laura Lebastard & Michele Mancini & Alessandro Borin & Peonare Caka & Gianmarco Cariola & Dennis Essers & Elena Gentili & Andrea Linarello & Tullia Padellini & Francisco Requena & Jaco, 2024. "Inputs in Distress: Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Firms’ Sourcing," Working Papers 2436, Banco de España.
    3. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Tomohide Mineyama & Dongho Song & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Are We Fragmented Yet? Measuring Geopolitical Fragmentation and Its Causal Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 11192, CESifo.
    4. Alessandro Moro & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2024. "FraNK: fragmentation in the NK model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1475, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Weber, Pierre-François & Afota, Amandine & Boeckelmann, Lukas & De Gaye, Annabelle & Dieppe, Alistair & Faubert, Violaine & Grieco, Fabio & Le Roux, Julien & Meunier, Baptiste & Munteanu, Bogdan & Nob, 2025. "The intersection between climate transition policies and geoeconomic fragmentation," Occasional Paper Series 366, European Central Bank.
    6. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    7. Alessandro D'Orazio & Fabrizio Ferriani & Andrea Gazzani, 2024. "Geoeconomic fragmentation and firms' financial performance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 844, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Tasso Adamopoulos & Fernando Leibovici, 2024. "Trade Risk and Food Security," Working Papers 2024-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Feb 2024.
    9. Francesco Cappelletti & Gérard Pogorel, 2024. "Sustainable? Competitive? The EU’s Industrial Autonomy – Facts and Fantasies," Post-Print hal-04505097, HAL.
    10. Ilkova, Ivelina & Lebastard, Laura & Serafini, Roberta, 2024. "Geopolitics and trade in the euro area and the United States: de-risking of import supplies?," Occasional Paper Series 359, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: Consequences for firms’ financial performance," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 221-230.
    2. Marco Flaccadoro, 2024. "The recent weakness in the German manufacturing sector," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 902, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Erik Braun & Emese Braun & András Gyimesi & Zita Iloskics & Tamás Sebestyén, 2023. "Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 2950-2982, October.
    4. Javier Quintana, 2022. "Economic consequences of a hypothetical suspension of Russia-EU trade," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2022.
    5. Lionel Fontagné & Philippe Martin & Gianluca Orefice, 2024. "The many channels of firm’s adjustment to energy shocks: evidence from France," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(117), pages 5-43.
    6. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    7. Thomas R. Cook & Amaze Lusompa & Jun Nie, 2022. "Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue November , pages 1-4, November.
    8. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "On curbing the rise in energy prices: An examination of different mitigation approaches," Discussion Papers 09/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Enrica Di Stefano & Vanessa Gunnella & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 700, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Trebesch, Christoph & Antezza, Arianna & Bushnell, Katelyn & Frank, André & Frank, Pascal & Franz, Lukas & Kharitonov, Ivan & Kumar, Bharath & Rebinskaya, Ekaterina & Schramm, Stefan, 2023. "The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how?," Kiel Working Papers 2218, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), revised 2023.
    12. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Richard Grieveson & Mario Holzner & Artem Kochnev & Michael Landesmann & Olga Pindyuk & Robert Stehrer & Maryna Tverdostup & Alexandra Bykova, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 331-381, May.
    13. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03880930, HAL.
      • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben McWilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 034, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
      • Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Ben Mcwilliams & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick & Georg Zachmann, 2022. "How it can be done," Working Papers hal-03880930, HAL.
    14. Georg Zachmann & Guntram B. Wolff & Agata Łoskot-Strachota & Simone Tagliapietra & Axel Ockenfels & Ricardo Hausmann & Ulrich Schetter, 2022. "Cutting Putin’s energy rent- ‘smart sanctioning’ Russian oil and gas," Bruegel Working Papers 48117, Bruegel.
    15. Fetzer, Thiemo & Lambert, Peter John & Feld, Bennet & Garg, Prashant, 2024. "AI-Generated Production Networks: Measurement and Applications to Global Trade," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 733, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    16. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "Was wäre wenn? Die Auswirkungen einer harten Abkopplung von China auf die deutsche Wirtschaft [What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy]," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Braakmann, Nils & Dursun, Bahadir & Pickard, Harry, 2023. "Energy Price Shocks and the Demand for Energy-Efficient Housing: Evidence from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine," IZA Discussion Papers 15959, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Mavrigiannakis, Konstantinos & Sakkas, Stelios, 2024. "EU sanctions on Russia and implications for a small open economy: the case of Cyprus," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125336, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Borin, Alessandro & Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Di Stefano, Enrica & Gunnella, Vanessa & Mancini, Michele & Panon, Ludovic, 2023. "Trade decoupling from Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 25-44.
    20. Alexander Sandkamp, 2022. "Reshoring by Decree? The Effects of Decoupling Europe from Global Value Chains," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(6), pages 359-362, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    decoupling; global value chains; international trade; trade modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232839. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.