IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/wirtsc/v102y2022i4d10.1007_s10273-022-3151-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Die Folgen eines russischen Erdgasembargos
[The Consequences of an Embargo on Russian Gas]

Author

Listed:
  • Veronika Grimm

    (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg)

  • Andreas Löschel

    (Ruhr-Universität Bochum (RUB))

  • Karen Pittel

    (ifo Zentrum für Energie, Klima und Ressourcen)

Abstract

Sanctions and their effectiveness are at the centre of the discussion about an appropriate response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. At the latest since the atrocities of the war became evident and payment for gas supplies in roubles was brought into play, voices calling for a natural gas embargo have been growing. In the discussion about the possible consequences of such an embargo, forecasts vary from serious but manageable effects on economic development to mass unemployment and deindustrialisation. Regarding the short run, the main question is: How much of Russian natural gas supply can be replaced and saved by next winter. We provide an overview of existing analyses on savings and substitution potentials, followed by some fundamental policy principles aimed at dealing with a halt in Russian natural gas supplies.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronika Grimm & Andreas Löschel & Karen Pittel, 2022. "Die Folgen eines russischen Erdgasembargos [The Consequences of an Embargo on Russian Gas]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(4), pages 251-255, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:102:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10273-022-3151-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-022-3151-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10273-022-3151-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10273-022-3151-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881469, HAL.
    2. Maximilian Auffhammer & Edward Rubin, 2018. "Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills," NBER Working Papers 24295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christian Bayer & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "Stopp russischer Energieeinfuhren würde deutsche Wirtschaft spürbar treffen, Fiskalpolitik wäre in der Verantwortung," DIW aktuell 80, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt & Christian Wey, 2022. "Why “Energy Price Brakes” Encourage Moral Hazard, Raise Energy Prices, and Reinforce Energy Savings," CESifo Working Paper Series 10163, CESifo.
    2. Thieß Petersen & Marcus Wortmann, 2022. "Autarkie und Offenheit — Überlegungen zur optimalen Balance einer offenen Volkswirtschaft [Autarky and Openness — Reflections on the Optimal Balance of an Open Economy]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(9), pages 709-715, September.
    3. Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus & Wey, Christian, 2023. "Why Germany's Gas Price Brake Encourages Moral Hazard and Raises Gas Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pieroni, Valerio, 2023. "Energy shortages and aggregate demand: Output loss and unequal burden from HANK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Anton Pichler & Jan Hurt & Tobias Reisch & Johannes Stangl & Stefan Thurner, 2024. "Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies," Papers 2409.07981, arXiv.org.
    3. Berger, Eva M. & Bialek, Sylwia & Garnadt, Niklas & Grimm, Veronika & Other, Lars & Salzmann, Leonard & Schnitzer, Monika & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "A potential sudden stop of energy imports from Russia: Effects on energy security and economic output in Germany and the EU," Working Papers 01/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2023. "The impact of the war in Ukraine on energy prices: Consequences for firms’ financial performance," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 221-230.
    5. Thibault Fally & James Sayre, 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," 2018 Meeting Papers 172, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Javier Quintana, 2022. "Economic consequences of a hypothetical suspension of Russia-EU trade," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2022.
    7. Neidell, Matthew & Uchida, Shinsuke & Veronesi, Marcella, 2019. "Be Cautious with the Precautionary Principle: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident," IZA Discussion Papers 12687, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Lionel Fontagné & Philippe Martin & Gianluca Orefice, 2024. "The many channels of firm’s adjustment to energy shocks: evidence from France," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 39(117), pages 5-43.
    9. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Was wäre, wenn...? Die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen eines Importstopps russischer Energie auf Deutschland," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 029, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    10. Thomas R. Cook & Amaze Lusompa & Jun Nie, 2022. "Disruptions to Russian Energy Supply Likely to Weigh on European Output," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue November , pages 1-4, November.
    11. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "On curbing the rise in energy prices: An examination of different mitigation approaches," Discussion Papers 09/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    13. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak & Matthew Zaragoza-Watkins, 2019. "Expecting the Unexpected: Emissions Uncertainty and Environmental Market Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3953-3977, November.
    14. Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Enrica Di Stefano & Vanessa Gunnella & Michele Mancini & Ludovic Panon, 2022. "Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 700, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Trebesch, Christoph & Antezza, Arianna & Bushnell, Katelyn & Frank, André & Frank, Pascal & Franz, Lukas & Kharitonov, Ivan & Kumar, Bharath & Rebinskaya, Ekaterina & Schramm, Stefan, 2023. "The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how?," Kiel Working Papers 2218, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), revised 2023.
    16. Robert W. Hahn & Robert D. Metcalfe, 2021. "Efficiency and Equity Impacts of Energy Subsidies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1658-1688, May.
    17. Güntner, Jochen & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Discussion Papers 22/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Michael Hüther, 2022. "Das Problem des subjektiven Werturteils [The Problem of Subjective Value Judgment]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(4), pages 273-278, April.
    19. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Richard Grieveson & Mario Holzner & Artem Kochnev & Michael Landesmann & Olga Pindyuk & Robert Stehrer & Maryna Tverdostup & Alexandra Bykova, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 331-381, May.
    20. Neidell, Matthew & Uchida, Shinsuke & Veronesi, Marcella, 2021. "The unintended effects from halting nuclear power production: Evidence from Fukushima Daiichi accident," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    O13; P13; Q43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • P13 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Cooperative Enterprises
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:102:y:2022:i:4:d:10.1007_s10273-022-3151-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.