IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20243006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trust in central banks

Author

Listed:
  • Ehrmann, Michael

Abstract

Trust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to large errors in central banks’ inflation forecasts, or given problems when exiting from forward guidance. The rapid, substantial and persistent erosion of trust makes it clear that trust needs to be earned continuously. This paper reviews why trust is important, what determines it and how central banks can enhance it. It also argues that it is important for central banks to improve the measurement and monitoring of trust. It ends by highlighting some future challenges for maintaining trust. JEL Classification: E52, E58, G53

Suggested Citation

  • Ehrmann, Michael, 2024. "Trust in central banks," Working Paper Series 3006, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20243006
    Note: 203739
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp3006~502710f3fa.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Etienne Farvaque & Muhammad Azmat Hayat & Alexander Mihailov, 2017. "Who Supports the ECB? Evidence from Eurobarometer Survey Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 654-677, April.
    2. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    3. Carola Conces Binder, 2021. "Political Pressure on Central Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 715-744, June.
    4. Mochhoury, Sarah, 2023. "Central bank communication and trust: an experimental study on the European Central Bank and the general public," Working Paper Series 2824, European Central Bank.
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    6. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2023. "Anchored Inflation Expectations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-47, January.
    7. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Michael Weber, 2022. "Managing Households’ Expectations with Unconventional Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(4), pages 1597-1642.
    8. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna, 2024. "Trust in the central bank, financial literacy, and personal beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Edith, 2014. "The German public and its trust in the ECB: The role of knowledge and information search," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 286-303.
    10. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 1-37, December.
    11. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 645-677, March.
    12. Bernd Hayo & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Explaining central bank trust in an inflation-targeting country: the case of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 27-48.
    13. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2024. "Trust and monetary policy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 903-931, July.
    14. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2023. "Central bank communication and public trust: The case of ECB speeches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    15. Siria Angino & Federico M Ferrara & Stefania Secola, 2022. "The cultural origins of institutional trust: The case of the European Central Bank," European Union Politics, , vol. 23(2), pages 212-235, June.
    16. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    17. Alesina, Alberto & Summers, Lawrence H, 1993. "Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(2), pages 151-162, May.
    18. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    19. Ricardo Reis, 2023. "Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 47-51, May.
    20. Baumann, Ursel & Ferrando, Annalisa & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Reinelt, Timo, 2024. "SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms," IZA Discussion Papers 17015, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Francesco D’Acunto & Andreas Fuster & Michael Weber, 2021. "Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups," NBER Working Papers 29275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. D'Acunto, Francesco & Charalambakis, Evangelos & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff & Meyer, Justus & Weber, Michael, 2024. "Household Inflation Expectations: An Overview of Recent Insights for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 19167, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Klodiana Istrefi & Anamaria Piloiu, 2020. "Public Opinion on Central Banks when Economic Policy is Uncertain," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 130(2), pages 283-306.
    24. Kwangyong Park, 2023. "Central Bank Credibility and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(2), pages 145-197, June.
    25. Bursian, Dirk & Faia, Ester, 2018. "Trust in the monetary authority," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 66-79.
    26. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2022. "Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 1-14.
    27. Dirk Bursian & Sven Fürth, 2015. "Trust Me! I am a European Central Banker," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1503-1530, December.
    28. Bianchi, Francesco & Gómez-Cram, Roberto & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard, 2023. "Threats to central bank independence: High-frequency identification with twitter," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 37-54.
    29. Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2003. "An introduction to the ECB's survey of professional forecasters," Occasional Paper Series 8, European Central Bank.
    30. Pei Kuang & Michael Weber & Shihan Xie, 2024. "Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve," NBER Working Papers 33071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Chahad, Mohammed & Hofmann-Drahonsky, Anna-Camilla & Page, Adrian & Tirpák, Marcel & Meunier, Baptiste, 2022. "What explains recent errors in the inflation projections of Eurosystem and ECB staff?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 3.
    32. Michael Weber, 2022. "Subjective inflation expectations of households," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 217-221, October.
    33. Office of Health Economics, 2023. "2022 OHE Annual Report to the Charity Commission," Grant-Funded Research 002482, Office of Health Economics.
    34. Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis, 2023. "Annual Report 2022: The Shifting Tides of Global Trade," Annual Report, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April.
    35. McMahon, Michael & Naylor, Matthew, 2023. "Getting through: communicating complex information," Bank of England working papers 1, Bank of England.
    36. Michael Ehrmann & Sarah Holton & Danielle Kedan & Gillian Phelan, 2024. "Monetary Policy Communication: Perspectives from Former Policymakers at the ECB," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 837-864, June.
    37. Michiel Bijlsma & Carin Cruijsen & Nicole Jonker & Jelmer Reijerink, 2024. "What Triggers Consumer Adoption of Central Bank Digital Currency?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 1-40, February.
    38. Angino, Siria & Secola, Stefania, 2022. "Instinctive versus reflective trust in the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2660, European Central Bank.
    39. Chahad, Mohammed & Hofmann-Drahonsky, Anna-Camilla & Page, Adrian & Tirpák, Marcel, 2023. "An updated assessment of short-term inflation projections by Eurosystem and ECB staff," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    40. Bholat, David & Broughton, Nida & Ter Meer, Janna & Walczak, Eryk, 2019. "Enhancing central bank communications using simple and relatable information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-15.
    41. Giuseppe Moscarini, 2007. "Competence Implies Credibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 37-63, March.
    42. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2011. "Evolving Perceptions of Central Bank Credibility: The European Central Bank Experience," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 153-182.
    43. Michael Ehrmann & Michel Soudan & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Explaining European Union Citizens’ Trust in the European Central Bank in Normal and Crisis Times," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(3), pages 781-807, July.
    44. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Carola Binder, 2021. "Presidential antagonism and central bank credibility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 244-263, July.
    46. Niizeki, Takeshi, 2023. "Trust in the central bank and inflation expectations: Experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    47. Lisa Farrell & Jane M. Fry & Tim R.L. Fry, 2021. "Who trusts the bank of England and high street banks in Britain?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(16), pages 1886-1898, April.
    48. Helge Berger & Jakob De Haan, 1999. "A State Within the State? An Event Study on the Bundesbank (1948–1973)," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(1), pages 17-39, February.
    49. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    50. Carola Binder & Wesley Janson & Randal Verbrugge, 2023. "Out of Bounds: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2-3), pages 559-576, March.
    51. Roman Horvath & Dominika Katuscakova, 2016. "Transparency and trust: the case of the European Central Bank," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(57), pages 5625-5638, December.
    52. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    53. Mee,Simon, 2019. "Central Bank Independence and the Legacy of the German Past," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108499781, January.
    54. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2024. "Trust and monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120871, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    55. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2023. "Drivers of trust in the ECB during the pandemic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(13), pages 1454-1476, March.
    56. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    57. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    58. Andrew Haldane & Michael McMahon, 2018. "Central Bank Communications and the General Public," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 578-583, May.
    59. Ceren Budak & Brendan Nyhan & David M. Rothschild & Emily Thorson & Duncan J. Watts, 2024. "Misunderstanding the harms of online misinformation," Nature, Nature, vol. 630(8015), pages 45-53, June.
    60. Zeev Kril & David Leiser & Avia Spivak, 2016. "What Determines the Credibility of the Central Bank of Israel in the Public Eye?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(1), pages 67-93, March.
    61. Mellina, Sathya & Schmidt, Tobias, 2018. "The role of central bank knowledge and trust for the public's inflation expectations," Discussion Papers 32/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    62. Maarten van Rooij & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "Would helicopter money be spent? New evidence for the Netherlands," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(58), pages 6171-6189, December.
    63. Rumler, Fabio & Valderrama, María Teresa, 2020. "Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 8-23.
    64. Antoine Camous & Dmitry Matveev, 2021. "Furor over the Fed: A President’s Tweets and Central Bank Independence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(1), pages 106-127.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    2. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "The impact of providing information about the ECB’s instruments on inflation expectations and trust in the ECB: Experimental evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Niţoi, Mihai & Pochea, Maria-Miruna, 2024. "Trust in the central bank, financial literacy, and personal beliefs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2023. "Central bank communication and public trust: The case of ECB speeches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Eickmeier, Sandra & Petersen, Luba, 2024. "Toward a holistic approach to central bank trust," Discussion Papers 27/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Brouwer, Nils & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Trust in the ECB: Drivers and consequences," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Angino, Siria & Secola, Stefania, 2022. "Instinctive versus reflective trust in the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 2660, European Central Bank.
    8. Ehrmann, Michael & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2023. "Credibility gains from communicating with the public: evidence from the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy," Working Paper Series 2785, European Central Bank.
    9. Hayo, Bernd & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2024. "Preaching to the agnostic: Inflation reporting can increase trust in the central bank but only among people with weak priors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Dräger, Lena & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. de Haan, Jakob & Hoogduin, Lex, 2024. "ECB communication policies: An overview and comparison with the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Ehrmann, Michael & Wabitsch, Alena, 2022. "Central bank communication with non-experts – A road to nowhere?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 69-85.
    14. In Do Hwang, 2018. "Central Bank Reputation and Inflation-Unemployment Performance: Empirical Evidence from an Executive Survey of 62 Countries," Working Papers 2018-14, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    15. Mochhoury, Sarah, 2023. "Central bank communication and trust: an experimental study on the European Central Bank and the general public," Working Paper Series 2824, European Central Bank.
    16. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "Monetary technocracy and democratic accountability: how central bank independence conditions economic voting," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 939-964, May.
    17. Carin van der Cruijsen & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Trust in the ECB in turbulent times," Working Papers 722, DNB.
    18. Michael J. Lamla & Damjan Pfajfar & Lea Rendell, 2019. "Inflation and deflationary biases in inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 789, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. In Do Hwang & Enzo Rossi, 2020. "Does communication influence executives' opinion of central bank policy?," Working Papers 2020-17, Swiss National Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    central banks; credibility; inflation expectations; monetary policy; trust;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G53 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Financial Literacy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20243006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.