IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20151831.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Böninghausen, Benjamin
  • Zabel, Michael

Abstract

This paper studies spillovers across sovereign debt markets in the wake of sovereign rating changes. We compile an extensive dataset covering all announcements by the three major agencies (Standard & Poor JEL Classification: G15, F36

Suggested Citation

  • Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Working Paper Series 1831, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151831
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1831.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Bertrand Candelon & Mr. Amadou N Sy & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/068, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    4. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    5. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    6. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    7. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "The Euro area sovereign debt crisis: safe haven, credit rating agencies and the spread of the fever from Greece, Ireland and Portugal," Working Paper Series 1419, European Central Bank.
    8. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    9. Christopher F. Baum & Margarita Karpava & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2013. "Credit Rating Agency Announcements and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1333, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    11. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    12. Brealey, R. A. & Kaplanis, E. C., 1996. "The determination of foreign banking location," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 577-597, August.
    13. Goldberg, Lawrence G & Saunders, Anthony, 1980. "The Causes of U.S. Bank Expansion Overseas: The Case of Great Britain," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 630-643, November.
    14. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    15. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    16. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
    17. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:2:p:273-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Hale, Galina B. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2012. "Currency composition of international bonds: The EMU effect," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 134-149.
    19. Rachel Christopher & Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Do Sovereign Credit Ratings Influence Regional Stock and Bond Market Interdependencies in Emerging Countries?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 15, pages 517-546, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Li, Huimin & Jeon, Bang Nam & Cho, Seong-Yeon & Chiang, Thomas C., 2008. "The impact of sovereign rating changes and financial contagion on stock market returns: Evidence from five Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-55.
    21. Hooper, Vince & Hume, Timothy & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2008. "Sovereign rating changes--Do they provide new information for stock markets?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 142-166, June.
    22. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, April.
    23. Paula Hill & Robert Faff, 2010. "The Market Impact of Relative Agency Activity in the Sovereign Ratings Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1309-1347, November.
    24. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2007. "Does sovereign debt ratings news spill over to international stock markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3162-3182, October.
    25. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
    26. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    27. Yamori, Nobuyoshi, 1998. "A note on the location choice of multinational banks: The case of Japanese financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-120, January.
    28. Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    29. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    30. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Foreign exchange market reactions to sovereign credit news," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 845-864.
    31. Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
    32. Steiner, Manfred & Heinke, Volker G, 2001. "Event Study Concerning International Bond Price Effects of Credit Rating Actions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 139-157, April.
    33. Mr. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 1998/142, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi, 2019. "Brexit and CDS spillovers across UK and Europe," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 16(1), pages 105-124, June.
    2. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on the activity of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 99-112.
    3. Stilianos Fountas & Dimitra Kontana & Paraskevi Tzika, 2024. "Uncertainty and financial asset return spillovers: are they related? Empirical evidence from three continents," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(5), pages 1891-1918, November.
    4. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2019. "News Releases, Credit Rating Announcements, and Anti-Crisis Measures as Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Peripheral Euro-Area Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 149-173, April.
    5. Chunling Li & Khansa Pervaiz & Muhammad Asif Khan & Faheem Ur Rehman & Judit Oláh, 2019. "On the Asymmetries of Sovereign Credit Rating Announcements and Financial Market Development in the European Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Hantzsche, Arno, 2022. "Fiscal uncertainty and sovereign credit risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Huyugüzel Kışla, Gül & Özlem Önder, A., 2018. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risks: The case of emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-55.
    8. Telila, Henok Fasil, 2023. "Frontier markets sovereign risk: New evidence from spatial econometric models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    9. Kenourgios, Dimitrios & Umar, Zaghum & Lemonidi, Paraskevi, 2020. "On the effect of credit rating announcements on sovereign bonds: International evidence," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 58-71.
    10. Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
    11. Roman Garcia & Dimitri Lorenzani & Daniel Monteiro & Francesco Perticari & Bořek Vašíček & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "Financial Spillover and Contagion Risks in the Euro Area in 2007-2019," European Economy - Discussion Papers 137, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2017. "How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: Cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 200-214.
    13. Henok Fasil Telila, 2024. "Frontier markets sovereign risk: New evidence from spatial econometric models," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 10, Stata Users Group.
    14. Hill, Paula & Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Faff, Robert, 2018. "New evidence on sovereign to corporate credit rating spill-overs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 209-225.
    15. Siebert, Jan & Yang, Guanzhong, 2021. "Coordination problems triggered by sunspots in the laboratory," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2021. "Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 643-663.
    17. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2018. "Brexit and CDS spillovers across UK and Europe," Working Papers hal-01736525, HAL.
    18. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    19. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2022. "It’s not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    20. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2016. "The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-286.
    21. Fathi Nakai & Tarek Chebbi, 2023. "The informational content of sovereign credit rating: another look," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 353-373, September.
    22. Zhehao Huang & Zhenghui Li & Zhenzhen Wang, 2020. "Utility Indifference Valuation for Defaultable Corporate Bond with Credit Rating Migration," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-26, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 115-136.
    2. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers in Economics 21075, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," MPRA Paper 47390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zabel, Michael & Böninghausen, Benjamin, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79724, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2016. "The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-286.
    6. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    7. Fathi Nakai & Tarek Chebbi, 2023. "The informational content of sovereign credit rating: another look," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 353-373, September.
    8. Mahir Binici & Michael M Hutchison & Evan Weicheng Miao, 2018. "Are credit rating agencies discredited? Measuring market price effects from agency sovereign debt announcements," BIS Working Papers 704, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Binici, Mahir & Hutchison, Michael & Miao, Evan Weicheng, 2020. "Market price effects of agency sovereign debt announcements: Importance of prior credit states," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 769-787.
    11. Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
    12. Panagiotis K. Staikouras, 2012. "A Theoretical and Empirical Review of the EU Regulation on Credit Rating Agencies: In Search of Truth, Not Scapegoats," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(2), pages 71-155, May.
    13. Ibrahim Fatnassi & Zied Ftiti & Habib Hasnaoui, 2014. "Stock Market Reactions to Sovereign Credit Rating Changes: Evidence from Four European Countries," Working Papers 2014-111, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    14. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    15. Hu, Haoshen & Prokop, Jörg & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2022. "Transnational spillover effects of European sovereign rating signals on bank stock returns," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 171-182.
    16. Athari, Seyed Alireza & Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2021. "Dependency between sovereign credit ratings and economic risk: Insight from Balkan countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Hippolyte Balima & Alexandru Minea & Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "Do sovereign credit rating events affect the foreign exchange market? Evidence from a treatment effect analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(1), pages 156-181, July.
    18. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2021. "Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 643-663.
    19. Patrycja Chodnicka -Jaworska, 2019. "Impact of credit rating agencies on European Banking stock prices: Is the recognition of credit rating agency important?," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 42019, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    20. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit rating agencies; cross-border spillover effects; international financial integration; Sovereign debt market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20151831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.