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It’s not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk

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  • Fornari, Fabio
  • Zaghini, Andrea

Abstract

Relying on a perspective borrowed from monetary policy announcements and introducing an econometric twist in the traditional event study analysis, we document the existence of an “event risk transfer”, namely a significant credit risk transmission from the sovereign to the corporate sector after a sovereign rating downgrade. We find that after the delivery of the downgrade, corporate CDS spreads rise by 36% per annum and there is a widespread contagion across countries, in particular among those which were most exposed to the sovereign debt crisis. This effect exists on top of the standard relation between sovereign and corporate credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2022. "It’s not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:128:y:2022:i:c:s0261560622001061
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102703
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    1. Korzeb, Zbigniew & Niedziółka, Paweł & Nistor, Simona, 2023. "Sovereign creditworthiness and bank foreign ownership. An empirical investigation of the European banking sector," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella D. Legrenzi & Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2024. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk: A Nonlinear Approach Based on Local Gaussian Correlations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11019, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign rating; Corporate credit risk; CDS spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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