IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v26y2018icp47-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial analysis of sovereign risks: The case of emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Huyugüzel Kışla, Gül
  • Özlem Önder, A.

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic determinants of the sovereign risks for emerging markets by taking spatial linkages into consideration. We employ spatial panel models for 20 emerging markets for this purpose. Using quarterly data for the period 2004–2015, our results show that there is a strong spatial linkage between the emerging markets. The most important linkage is found to be the trade channel for the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) spreads. Financial linkages are also important channels in transmitting the sovereign risk. Inflation rate and growth rates are found to be two important indicators of sovereign risk together with other macroeconomic variables. Our results reveal further indirect effects of macroeconomic variables for these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Huyugüzel Kışla, Gül & Özlem Önder, A., 2018. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risks: The case of emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:26:y:2018:i:c:p:47-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.12.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612317303008
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2017.12.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephan Dieckmann & Thomas Plank, 2012. "Default Risk of Advanced Economies: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swaps during the Financial Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 903-934.
    2. Viviana Fernandez, 2011. "Spatial linkages in international financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 237-245.
    3. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    4. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    5. Drago, Danilo & Tommaso, Caterina Di & Thornton, John, 2017. "What determines bank CDS spreads? Evidence from European and US banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-145.
    6. Oliveira, Luís & Curto, José Dias & Nunes, João Pedro, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign credit spread changes in the Euro-zone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 278-304.
    7. J. Paul Elhorst & Sandy Fréret, 2009. "Evidence Of Political Yardstick Competition In France Using A Two‐Regime Spatial Durbin Model With Fixed Effects," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 931-951, December.
    8. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    9. Kelejian, Harry H. & Piras, Gianfranco, 2014. "Estimation of spatial models with endogenous weighting matrices, and an application to a demand model for cigarettes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 140-149.
    10. Asgharian, Hossein & Hess, Wolfgang & Liu, Lu, 2013. "A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4738-4754.
    11. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Emanuele Baldacci & Tigran Poghosyan, 2013. "Spatial spillovers in emerging market spreads," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 735-756, October.
    12. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    13. Harry Seldadyo & J. Paul Elhorst & Jakob De Haan, 2010. "Geography and governance: Does space matter?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 625-640, August.
    14. Aloui, Riadh & Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane Ben & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Global financial crisis, extreme interdependences, and contagion effects: The role of economic structure?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 130-141, January.
    15. Qu, Xi & Lee, Lung-fei, 2015. "Estimating a spatial autoregressive model with an endogenous spatial weight matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 209-232.
    16. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    17. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    18. Augustin, Patrick & Tédongap, Roméo, 2016. "Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 541-587, April.
    19. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Working Paper Series 1831, European Central Bank.
    20. Armin Eder & Sebastian Keiler, 2015. "CDS Spreads and Contagion Amongst Systemically Important Financial Institutions – A Spatial Econometric Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 291-309, October.
    21. Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, June.
    22. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
    23. Clark, Ephraim & Kassimatis, Konstantinos, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-13.
    24. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February.
    25. Baek, In-Mee & Bandopadhyaya, Arindam & Du, Chan, 2005. "Determinants of market-assessed sovereign risk: Economic fundamentals or market risk appetite?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-548, June.
    26. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    27. Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
    28. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    29. Pedro Pires & João Pedro Pereira & Luís Filipe Martins, 2015. "The Empirical Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: a Quantile Regression Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(3), pages 556-589, June.
    30. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2013. "Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-163.
    31. Fujii, Eiji, 2005. "Intra and inter-regional causal linkages of emerging stock markets: evidence from Asia and Latin America in and out of crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 315-342, October.
    32. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
    33. Fender, Ingo & Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2786-2794.
    34. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 115-136.
    35. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2016. "Does inflation targeting reduce sovereign risk? Further evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 237-241.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Telila, Henok Fasil, 2023. "Frontier markets sovereign risk: New evidence from spatial econometric models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    2. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2022. "Modelling international sovereign risk information spillovers: A multilayer network approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Esma Nur Cinicioglu & Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & A. Özlem Önder & Y. Gülnur Muradoğlu, 2024. "The Changing Behavior of the European Credit Default Swap Spreads During the Covid-19 Pandemic: A Bayesian Network Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(3), pages 1213-1254, March.
    4. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Liu, Peipei & Huang, Wei-Qiang, 2024. "Spatial analysis of sovereign risk from the perspective of EPU spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 427-443.
    6. Henok Fasil Telila, 2024. "Frontier markets sovereign risk: New evidence from spatial econometric models," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 10, Stata Users Group.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Telila, Henok Fasil, 2023. "Frontier markets sovereign risk: New evidence from spatial econometric models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    2. Henok Fasil Telila, 2024. "Frontier markets sovereign risk: New evidence from spatial econometric models," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 10, Stata Users Group.
    3. Gül Huyugüzel Kışla & Y. Gülnur Muradoğlu & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "Spillovers from one country’s sovereign debt to CDS (credit default swap) spreads of others during the European crisis: a spatial approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 277-296, July.
    4. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    5. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    6. Blommestein, Hans & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Qian, Zongxin, 2016. "Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 10-21.
    7. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 30, July-Dece.
    8. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    9. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2017. "An international forensic perspective of the determinants of bank CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 60-70.
    10. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Shin, Yongcheol, 2023. "What is mine is yours: Sovereign risk transmission during the European debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Cayon, Edgardo & Thorp, Susan & Wu, Eliza, 2018. "Immunity and infection: Emerging and developed market sovereign spreads over the Global Financial Crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 162-174.
    12. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2014, January-A.
    13. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    14. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    15. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2022. "Debt and financial market contagion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1648, April.
    16. Agliardi, Elettra & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2014. "A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 375-384.
    17. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    18. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    19. Bostanci, Gorkem & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2020. "How connected is the global sovereign credit risk network?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign CDS spreads; Sovereign risk; Spatial econometrics; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:26:y:2018:i:c:p:47-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.