IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v32y2008i2p142-166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sovereign rating changes--Do they provide new information for stock markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Hooper, Vince
  • Hume, Timothy
  • Kim, Suk-Joong

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of sovereign rating changes on international financial markets using a comprehensive database of 42 countries, covering the major regions in the world over the period 1995-2003. In general, we find that rating agencies provide stock and foreign exchange markets with new tradable information. Specifically, rating upgrades (downgrades) significantly increased (decreased) USD denominated stock market returns and decreased (increased) volatility. Whereas the mean response is contributed evenly by the local currency stock returns and exchange rate changes that make up the USD returns, only the foreign exchange volatility was behind the USD denominated return volatility. In addition, we find significant asymmetric effects of rating announcements. The market responses - both return and volatility - are more pronounced in the cases of downgrades, foreign currency debt, emerging market debt, and during crisis periods. This study has important policy implications for international investors' asset allocation plans and for regulatory bodies such as the Basel Committee who increasingly rely upon Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch's ratings for their regulatory regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Hooper, Vince & Hume, Timothy & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2008. "Sovereign rating changes--Do they provide new information for stock markets?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 142-166, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:142-166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939-3625(08)00003-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    2. Chang, Eric C. & Cheng, Joseph W. & Khorana, Ajay, 2000. "An examination of herd behavior in equity markets: An international perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1651-1679, October.
    3. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    4. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. "The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
    5. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD Publishing.
    6. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
    7. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
    8. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W., 1986. "The effect of bond rating changes on common stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-89, September.
    9. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    11. repec:bla:intfin:v:2:y:1999:i:2:p:273-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    14. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    15. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
    16. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    17. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2007. "Does sovereign debt ratings news spill over to international stock markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3162-3182, October.
    18. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    19. Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    20. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    21. Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers in Economics 21075, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 115-136.
    3. Pukthuanthong-Le, Kuntara & Elayan, Fayez A. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2007. "Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-83.
    4. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," MPRA Paper 47390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    6. El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Zoran Ivanovic & Sinisa Bogdan & Suzana Baresa, 2015. "Modeling and Estimating Shadow Sovereign Ratings," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    8. Fathi Nakai & Tarek Chebbi, 2023. "The informational content of sovereign credit rating: another look," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 353-373, September.
    9. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Working Paper Series 1831, European Central Bank.
    10. Zabel, Michael & Böninghausen, Benjamin, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79724, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2016. "The relation between sovereign credit rating revisions and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 90-100.
    12. Li, Huimin & Jeon, Bang Nam & Cho, Seong-Yeon & Chiang, Thomas C., 2008. "The impact of sovereign rating changes and financial contagion on stock market returns: Evidence from five Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-55.
    13. Panagiotis K. Staikouras, 2012. "A Theoretical and Empirical Review of the EU Regulation on Credit Rating Agencies: In Search of Truth, Not Scapegoats," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(2), pages 71-155, May.
    14. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne & De Moor, Lieven, 2016. "Pernicious effects: How the credit rating agencies disadvantage emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 286-298.
    15. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    16. Sahibzada, Irfan Ullah, 2023. "To what extent do sovereign rating actions affect global equity market sectors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 240-261.
    17. Mr. John Kiff & Sylwia Nowak & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2012. "Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2012/023, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    19. Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
    20. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2016. "The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-286.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:142-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.