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The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances and implications for fiscal policy

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  • Lis, Eliza
  • Nickel, Christiane

Abstract

This paper explores implications of climate change for fiscal policy by assessing the impact of large scale extreme weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude that the budgetary impact of such events ranges between 0.23% and 1.1% of GDP depending on the country group. Developing countries face a much larger effect on changes in budget balances following an extreme weather event than do advanced economies. Based on these findings, we discuss implications for fiscal policy and publiclyprovided disaster insurance. Our policy conclusions point to the enhanced need to reach and maintain sound fiscal positions given that climate change is expected to cause an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. JEL Classification: Q54, Q58, F59, H87

Suggested Citation

  • Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances and implications for fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1055, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091055
    Note: 166869
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    Cited by:

    1. Cécile Couharde & Rémi Generoso, 2015. "Hydro-climatic thresholds and economic growth reversals in developing countries: an empirical investigation," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    2. Klomp, Jeroen, 2017. "Flooded with debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 93-103.
    3. Leppänen, Simo & Solanko, Laura & Kosonen, Riitta, 2015. "Could climate change affect government expenditures? Early evidence from the Russian regions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Simo Leppänen & Laura Solanko & Riitta Kosonen, 2017. "The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Government Expenditures: Evidence from Russia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 67-92, May.
    6. Yawen Wang & Qing Wang & Zhaopeng Xing, 2022. "Climate Disaster Losses and Foreign Exchange Reserve Dynamics: Evidence of East Asia Pacific," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-15, November.
    7. Raluca Maran, 2023. "Drivers of sovereign catastrophe bond issuance: an empirical analysis," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Ouattara, Bazoumana & Strobl, Eric, 2013. "The fiscal implications of hurricane strikes in the Caribbean," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 105-115.
    9. Klomp, Jeroen, 2019. "Does government ideology shake or shape the public finances? Empirical evidence of disaster assistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 118-127.
    10. Alex Bowen & Sarah Cochrane & Samuel Fankhauser, 2012. "Climate change, adaptation and economic growth," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 95-106, July.
    11. Preeya Mohan & Eric Strobl, 2021. "The impact of tropical storms on tax revenue," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 472-489, April.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-070 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Jeroen Klomp, 2020. "Election or Disaster Support?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(1), pages 205-220, January.
    14. Leppänen, Simo & Solanko, Laura & Kosonen, Riitta, 2015. "Could climate change affect government expenditures? Early evidence from the Russian regions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    15. Preeya Mohan & Eric Strobl, 2021. "The impact of tropical storms on the accumulation and composition of government debt," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 483-496, June.
    16. Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh & Weonho Yang, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Government Spending, and the Fiscal Multiplier," CESifo Working Paper Series 5665, CESifo.
    17. Chris J. Barton & Qingqing Wang & Derrick M. Anderson & Drew A. Callow, 2021. "Synchronizing the Logic of Inquiry with the Logic of Action: The Case of Urban Climate Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-16, September.
    18. Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2012. "Government Spending Shocks and the Multiplier: New Evidence from the U.S. Based on Natural Disasters," CESifo Working Paper Series 4005, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; disasters; fiscal sustainability; global warming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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