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The impact of tropical storms on tax revenue

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  • Preeya Mohan
  • Eric Strobl

Abstract

We investigate the vulnerability of tax revenue and its various sources to hurricane damages. To this end, we construct a monthly panel of hurricane losses, tax revenue, and its components, tax rates, and gross domestic product (GDP) for eight Eastern Caribbean countries over 14 years. Panel vector autoregressions (VAR) show that following a hurricane, any effects are generally short term. The cumulative expected loss in total tax revenue is 5.3%. Revenue derived from international trade and transactions and domestic goods and service are the most negatively affected. Countries with higher value added, as well as international trade and transactions tax rates, appear to be able to buffer the negative impact better, whereas higher property taxes amplify the negative impact of damaging hurricanes on this revenue source.

Suggested Citation

  • Preeya Mohan & Eric Strobl, 2021. "The impact of tropical storms on tax revenue," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 472-489, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:33:y:2021:i:3:p:472-489
    DOI: 10.1002/jid.3538
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alessio Ciullo & Eric Strobl & Simona Meiler & Olivia Martius & David N. Bresch, 2022. "Increasing countries financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling," Papers 2206.13895, arXiv.org.
    2. John Gibson & Yi Jiang & Xiaoxuan Zhang & Geua Boe-Gibson, 2024. "Are Disaster Impact Estimates Distorted by Errors in Popular Night-Time Lights Data?," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 391-416, November.
    3. Alessio Ciullo & Eric Strobl & Simona Meiler & Olivia Martius & David N. Bresch, 2023. "Increasing countries’ financial resilience through global catastrophe risk pooling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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