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How an Export Boom affects Unemployment

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  • Noel Gaston
  • Gulasekaran Rajaguru

Abstract

Does trade affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment? To theoretically examine this question, we incorporate firm-union bargaining considerations into a model with a booming external sector and a stagnating manufacturing sector. In the model, a sustained improvement in the terms of trade lowers unemployment. To empirically investigate the predicted determinants of the unemployment rate, we use data for Australia, a country whose prosperity has always depended on the value of its exports. We find strong evidence that higher export prices, capital accumulation in tradeable goods industries and a lower unemployment benefit replacement rate each reduce the equilibrium unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Noel Gaston & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2011. "How an Export Boom affects Unemployment," ISER Discussion Paper 0801, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0801
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    Cited by:

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    2. Tafadzwa Ruzive & Thando Mkhombo & Simbarashe Mhaka & Nomahlubi Mavikela & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Electricity Intensity and Unemployment in South Africa: A Quantile Regression Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 31-40.
    3. Gaston, Noel & Yoshimi, Taiyo, 2023. "The Balassa-Samuelson model with job separations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Melisa Bond & Noel Gaston, 2012. "Unemployment and the Global Financial Crisis: Who Suffered Most and Why?," Chapters, in: Mohamed Ariff & John H. Farrar & Ahmed M. Khalid (ed.), Regulatory Failure and the Global Financial Crisis, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Besime Ziberi, & Merita Avdiu, 2020. "Econometric Analysis to Examine the Relationship between Unemployment and Macroeconomics Aggregates. Evidence from Kosovo," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(2), pages 33-41, June.
    6. Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. & Parra-Polanía, Julián A. & Vargas, Carmiña O., 2016. "Fiscal rules as a response to commodity shocks: A welfare analysis of the Colombian scenario," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 859-866.
    7. Basu, Bharati, 2017. "Labor market effects of export processing zones in the presence of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 19-29.
    8. Noel Gaston & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2015. "A Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive model of boom and bust in the Australian labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1271-1299, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J51 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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