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Temporal aggregation, cointegration and causality inference

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  • Rajaguru, Gulasekaran
  • Abeysinghe, Tilak

Abstract

Temporal aggregation creates contemporaneous correlations, alters dynamic links and may distort causality inference. Since cointegration is invariant to temporal aggregation and implies Granger causality this paper presents a sign rule for causal inference and contemporaneous conditioning in regression models.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2008. "Temporal aggregation, cointegration and causality inference," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 223-226, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:101:y:2008:i:3:p:223-226
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gaston, Noel & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2013. "How an export boom affects unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 343-355.
    2. Tilak Abeysinghe & Jiaying Gu, 2011. "Lifetime Income and Housing Affordability in Singapore," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(9), pages 1875-1891, July.
    3. Gebhard Kirchgässner & Jürgen Wolters, 2010. "The Role of Monetary Aggregates in the Policy Analysis of the Swiss National Bank," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 221-253, March.
    4. Tilak Abeysinghe & Gu Jiaying, 2009. "Does the IV estimator establish causality? Re-examining Chinese fertility-growth relationship," Microeconomics Working Papers 22758, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH & Foued Badr GABSI & Ameni MTIBAA, 2018. "Tax smoothing hypothesis: The Tunisian case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 169-178, Winter.
    6. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2011. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area during the Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1131, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Mamingi Nlandu, 2017. "Beauty and Ugliness of Aggregation over Time: A Survey," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(3), pages 205-227, December.
    8. Gyula Dörgő & Viktor Sebestyén & János Abonyi, 2018. "Evaluating the Interconnectedness of the Sustainable Development Goals Based on the Causality Analysis of Sustainability Indicators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-26, October.
    9. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2021. "Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Presence of Growth Volatility: Multi-Country Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-26, October.
    10. Bilson, Chris & Brailsford, Tim & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2022. "Covered interest rate parity deviations in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2013. "The experience of some OECD economies on tax smoothing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2305-2313, June.
    12. Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Srivastava, Sadhana & Sen, Rahul & Mukhopadhaya, Pundarik, 2023. "Does globalization drive long-run inequality within OECD countries? A guide to policy making," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 469-493.
    13. Xinshuai Dong & Haoyue Dai & Yewen Fan & Songyao Jin & Sathyamoorthy Rajendran & Kun Zhang, 2023. "On the Three Demons in Causality in Finance: Time Resolution, Nonstationarity, and Latent Factors," Papers 2401.05414, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    14. J. Isaac Miller, 2016. "Conditionally Efficient Estimation of Long-Run Relationships Using Mixed-Frequency Time Series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 1142-1171, June.
    15. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Ahmed M Khalid & Francesco Barbera, 2014. "It’s not yen, euro or koala bloc: Greenback is still dominant in East Asia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(4), pages 549-571, November.

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