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A GARCH model for testing market efficiency

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Liu, Ruipeng

Abstract

In this paper we propose a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model-based test for a unit root. The model allows for two endogenous structural breaks. We test for unit roots in 156 US stocks listed on the NYSE over the period 1980 to 2007. We find that the unit root null hypothesis is rejected in 40% of the stocks, and only in four out of the nine sectors the null is rejected for over 50% of stocks. We conclude with an economic significance analysis, showing that mostly stocks with mean reverting prices tend to outperform stocks with non-stationary prices.
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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng, 2015. "A GARCH model for testing market efficiency," Working Papers fe_2015_01, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2015_01
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2015.12.008
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    Keywords

    Efficient Market Hypothesis; GARCH; Unit Root; Structural Break; Stock Price;
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