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New evidence from the random walk hypothesis for BRICS stock indices: a wavelet unit root test approach

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  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar
  • Kyophilavong, Phouphet

Abstract

We examine the use of the random walk hypothesis on the BRICS stock indices. Our examination of the stock indices uses a recently developed wavelet-based unit root test by Fan and Gençay (2010) along with a battery of unit root tests. We also examine the sensitivity of the wavelet-based unit root test. Our wavelet-based unit root tests show evidence that rejects the null of the unit root for all of the BRICS countries except for the Russian Federation. Hence, the tests provide support for the predictability of stock market indices in these economies on the basis of historical information. However, there is a need for caution because the results are based on a relatively small sample of only 11years of monthly observations.

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  • Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Kyophilavong, Phouphet, 2014. "New evidence from the random walk hypothesis for BRICS stock indices: a wavelet unit root test approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:43:y:2014:i:c:p:38-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.07.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Rashid Mehmood, 2018. "Examining the Efficiency of American Stock Exchange NASDAQ: An empirical analysis of the Market Efficiency Hypothesis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(3), pages 132-137, September.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng & Westerlund, Joakim, 2016. "A GARCH model for testing market efficiency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 121-138.
    3. Mukta Kanvinde & Muneer Shaik, 2020. "Are BRICS Stock Market Indices Mean Reverting? Evidence Based on Expected Lifetime Range Ratio," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 19(2), pages 169-186, September.
    4. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    5. Adedoyin Isola Lawal & Russel O Somoye & Abiola Ayopo Babajide, 2017. "Are African stock markets efficient? Evidence from wavelet unit root test for random walk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2665-2679.
    6. Ali, Sajid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed, 2018. "Stock market efficiency: A comparative analysis of Islamic and conventional stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 139-153.
    7. Fan He & Xuansen He, 2019. "A Continuous Differentiable Wavelet Shrinkage Function for Economic Data Denoising," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 729-761, August.
    8. Dora Almeida & Andreia Dionísio & Muhammad Enamul Haque & Paulo Ferreira, 2022. "A Giant Falls: The Impact of Evergrande on Asian Stock Indexes," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    9. Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Everton Dockery, 2021. "Testing for efficiency in the Saudi stock market: does corporate governance change matter?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 61-90, July.
    10. Kelikume, Ikechukwu & Evans, Olaniyi & Iyoha, Faith, 2020. "Efficient Market Hypothesis in the Presence of Market Imperfections: Evidence from Selected Stock Markets in Africa," MPRA Paper 118200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ume Habibah & Niaz Hussain Ghumro & Manzoor Ali Mirani, 2017. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: A Case of Pakistan," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 7(7), pages 551-564, July.
    12. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Infante, Juan & Martín-Valmayor, Miguel Angel, 2023. "Persistence and long run co-movements across stock market prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 347-357.
    13. Mishra, Vinod & Smyth, Russell, 2016. "Are natural gas spot and futures prices predictable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 178-186.
    14. Siva Kiran & Prabhakar Rao.R, 2019. "Analysis of Stock Market Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Evidence from BRICS," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(72), pages 60-77, June.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2017. "Is the profitability of Indian stocks compensation for risks?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 47-64.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Market efficiency; Random walk; Structural break; Wavelet unit root;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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