IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/diw/diwwpp/dp932.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-linear Factor Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Burcu Erdogan
  • Vladimir Kuzin

Abstract

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including Euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2009. "Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-linear Factor Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 932, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp932
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.342142.de/dp932.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    2. Campa, Jose Manuel & Fernandes, Nuno, 2006. "Sources of gains from international portfolio diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 417-443, October.
    3. Hardouvelis, Gikas A. & Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 2007. "The impact of EMU on the equity cost of capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 305-327, March.
    4. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    5. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    7. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ, & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2000. "EMU and Portfolio Diversification Opportunities," FAME Research Paper Series rp31, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    8. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2005. "Have World, Country, and Industry Risks Changed over Time? An Investigation of the Volatility of Developed Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 195-222, March.
    9. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2005. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-38, January.
    10. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2011. "Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 343-369, October.
    11. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
    12. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2003. "European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory-Based Assessment," FAME Research Paper Series rp84, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    13. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    14. Juan Ayuso & Roberto Blanco, 1999. "Has Financial Market Integration Increased during the Nineties?," Working Papers 9923, Banco de España.
    15. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
    16. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    17. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1995. "Measurement of Market Integration and Arbitrage," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 287-325.
    18. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-193, July.
    19. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
    20. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    21. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & James Payne, 2011. "Political and Institutional Factors in the Convergence of International Equity Markets: Evidence from the Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(1), pages 7-18, March.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across the U.S. States," Working Papers 201539, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Asongu, Simplice A. & Andrés, Antonio R., 2020. "Trajectories of knowledge economy in SSA and MENA countries," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    4. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 36-58.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Cooray, Arusha, 2014. "Tax revenues convergence across ASEAN, Pacific and Oceania countries: Evidence from club convergence," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 11-21.
    6. Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel & David Rodeiro‐Pazos, 2018. "Do Short‐ and Long‐Term Environmental Investments Follow the Same Path?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 14-28, January.
    7. Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel & María Belén Lozano & Maria Fernanda Ludovina Inácio Matias, 2022. "The Low‐carbon Equity Market: A New Alternative for Investment Diversification?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(1), pages 34-47, February.
    8. Elzbieta Szulc & Dagna Wleklinska & Karolina Gorna & Joanna Gorna, 2014. "The significance of distance between stock exchanges undergoing the process of convergence: An analysis of selected world stock exchanges during the period of 2004-2012," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 125-144.
    9. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou, 2016. "Energy productivity convergence: new evidence from club converging," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 142-145, February.
    10. Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos & Christiano Modesto Penna & Ana Balbina Gomes Silva, 2015. "Mutual Investments Funds in Shares in Brazil: Incentives, Management and Convergence," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(2), pages 110-144, March.
    11. Simplice Asongu, 2013. "Harmonizing IPRs on Software Piracy: Empirics of Trajectories in Africa," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 45-60, November.
    12. Simplice A. Asongu, 2013. "African Stock Market Performance Dynamics: A Multidimensional Convergence Assessment," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 186-201, December.
    13. Rughoo, Aarti & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Integration in European retail banking: Evidence from savings and lending rates to non-financial corporations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1307-1327.
    14. Elzbieta Szulc & Dagna Wleklinska, 2015. "Spatio-temporal Analysis of Convergence of Development Level of Selected Stock Exchanges in the Period of 2004–2012," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 15, pages 5-26.
    15. Rughoo, Aarti & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2014. "The global financial crisis and integration in European retail banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 28-41.
    16. Bai, Caiquan & Yan, Hong & Yin, Shanggang & Feng, Chen & Wei, Qian, 2021. "Exploring the development trend of internet finance in China: Perspective from club convergence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    17. Rughoo, Aarti & You, Kefei, 2016. "Asian financial integration: Global or regional? Evidence from money and bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 419-434.
    18. Ekaterina Dorodnykh, 2012. "What Is the Degree of Convergence among Developed Equity Markets?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 2-16, April.
    19. Gabriel, Vítor, 2018. "Environmentally sustainable investment: Dynamics between global thematic indices," Cuadernos de Gestión, Universidad del País Vasco - Instituto de Economía Aplicada a la Empresa (IEAE).
    20. Nicholas Apergis & Arusha Cooray, 2016. "Old Wine In A New Bottle: Trade Openness And Fdi Flows—Are The Emerging Economies Converging?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(2), pages 336-351, April.
    21. Peter, Manuel, 2015. "Konvergenz der europäischen Aktienmärkte: Eine Analyse der Entwicklungen und Herausforderungen für Investoren," Arbeitspapiere 150, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guglielmo Caporale & Burcu Erdogan & Vladimir Kuzin, 2015. "Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 481-498, August.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 36-58.
    3. Fegheh Majidi , Ali & Mohammadi , Ahmad & Nanvay Sabegh , Behnaz, 2017. "An Investigation of Convergence Hypothesis of Price Index in Asian Stock Markets," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 12(1), pages 73-88, January.
    4. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2011. "Analysing convergence in Europe using the non-linear single factor model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 343-369, October.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & You, Kefei & Chen, Lei, 2019. "Global and regional stock market integration in Asia: A panel convergence approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Massimiliano Affinito, 2011. "Convergence clubs, the euro-area rank and the relationship between banking and real convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 809, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Charles Shaaba Saba & Oladipo Olalekan David, 2023. "Identifying Convergence in Telecommunication Infrastructures and the Dynamics of Their Influencing Factors Across Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1413-1466, June.
    8. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2009. "Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 368-387, June.
    10. Kong, Jianning & Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2019. "Weak σ-convergence: Theory and applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 185-207.
    11. Eiling, Esther & Gerard, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & de Roon, Frans A., 2012. "International portfolio diversification: Currency, industry and country effects revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1249-1278.
    12. Rughoo, Aarti & You, Kefei, 2016. "Asian financial integration: Global or regional? Evidence from money and bond markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 419-434.
    13. Eun, Cheol S. & Lee, Jinsoo, 2010. "Mean-variance convergence around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 856-870, April.
    14. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    15. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1669 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    17. Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010. "The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
    18. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2009. "International Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(6), pages 2591-2626, December.
    19. Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian M., 2004. "International equity market integration: Theory, evidence and implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 571-583.
    20. Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Qian, Zhaowen & Verschoor, Willem & Zwinkels, Remco, 2016. "Time-varying importance of country and industry factors in European corporate bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 429-448.
    21. Jalal El Ouardighi & Rabija Somun-Kapetanovic, 2009. "Convergence and Inequality of income: the case of Western Balkan countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 6(2), pages 207-225, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Financial Integration; European Monetary Union Convergence; Factor Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp932. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/diwbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.