IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/11906.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Stock Return Comovements

Author

Listed:
  • Geert Bekaert
  • Robert J. Hodrick
  • Xiaoyan Zhang

Abstract

We examine international stock return comovements using country-industry and country-style portfolios. We first establish that parsimonious risk-based factor models capture the covariance structure of the data better than the popular Heston-Rouwenhorst (1994) model. We then establish the following stylized facts regarding stock return comovements. First, we do not find evidence for an upward trend in return correlations, excpet for the European stock markets. Second, the increasing imporatnce of industry factors relative to country factors was a short-lived, temporary phenomenon. Third, we find no evidence for a trend in idiosyncratic risk in any of the countries we examine.

Suggested Citation

  • Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," NBER Working Papers 11906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11906
    Note: AP IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11906.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1975-1999 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. John Y. Campbell & Martin Lettau & Burton G. Malkiel & Yexiao Xu, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
    4. Brooks, Robin & Del Negro, Marco, 2004. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 659-680, December.
    5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, April.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    7. Kallberg, Jarl & Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "Time-series and cross-sectional excess comovement in stock indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 481-502, June.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    9. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 269-334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 165-193, July.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    13. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A., 1986. "Performance measurement with the arbitrage pricing theory : A new framework for analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 373-394, March.
    14. Francesca Carrieri & Vihang Errunza & Sergei Sarkissian, 2012. "The Dynamics of Geographic versus Sectoral Diversification: Is There a Link to the Real Economy?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-41.
    15. Roll, Richard, 1992. "Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 3-41, March.
    16. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    17. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    18. repec:bla:intfin:v:6:y:2003:i:2:p:179-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-1304, September.
    20. Mr. Luis Catão & Mr. Allan Timmermann, 2003. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 2003/052, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    22. Chamberlain, Gary, 1983. "Funds, Factors, and Diversification in Arbitrage Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1305-1323, September.
    23. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    24. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
    25. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-241.
    26. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    27. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey (ed.), 2004. "Emerging Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2836.
    28. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2003. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 179-199, July.
    29. Jones, Christopher S., 2001. "Extracting factors from heteroskedastic asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 293-325, November.
    30. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    31. K. Jöreskog, 1967. "Some contributions to maximum likelihood factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 32(4), pages 443-482, December.
    32. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    33. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:549-573 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    35. Eiling, E. & Gerard, B. & de Roon, F.A., 2005. "Asset Allocation in the Euro-Zone : Industry or Country Based?," Other publications TiSEM a8e28ea1-04bc-479e-9728-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    36. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    37. Kang, Jun-Koo & Stulz, Rene M., 1997. "Why is there a home bias? An analysis of foreign portfolio equity ownership in Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-28, October.
    38. Griffin, John M. & Andrew Karolyi, G., 1998. "Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 351-373, December.
    39. Eiling, E. & Gerard, B. & de Roon, F.A., 2005. "Asset Allocation in the Euro-Zone : Industry or Country Based?," Discussion Paper 2005-2, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    40. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "International diversification strategies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    41. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2005. "Have World, Country, and Industry Risks Changed over Time? An Investigation of the Volatility of Developed Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 195-222, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2009. "Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 368-387, June.
    2. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    4. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    5. Arnaud Mehl, 2013. "Large global volatility shocks, equity markets and globalisation: 1885-2011," Globalization Institute Working Papers 148, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    7. Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart & Nguyen, Ngoc, 2015. "Time-varying regional and global integration and contagion: Evidence from style portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-131.
    8. Frijns, Bart & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2017. "Excess stock return comovements and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-87.
    9. Wagner, Alexander F. & Schrimpf, Paul & Petzev, Ivan, 2015. "Has the Pricing of Stocks Become More Global?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10966, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Beine, Michel & Cosma, Antonio & Vermeulen, Robert, 2010. "The dark side of global integration: Increasing tail dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 184-192, January.
    11. Apergis, Nicholas & Christou, Christina & Miller, Stephen M., 2014. "Country and industry convergence of equity markets: International evidence from club convergence and clustering," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 36-58.
    12. Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Qian, Zhaowen & Verschoor, Willem & Zwinkels, Remco, 2016. "Time-varying importance of country and industry factors in European corporate bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 429-448.
    13. Chia-Hao Lee & Pei-I Chou, 2012. "Trading Activity and Financial Market Integration," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 589-616, August.
    14. Evans, Martin D.D. & Hnatkovska, Viktoria V., 2014. "International capital flows, returns and world financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-33.
    15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    16. Cai, Charlie X. & Mobarek, Asma & Zhang, Qi, 2017. "International stock market leadership and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 150-162.
    17. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Causal effects of the United States and Japan on Pacific-Rim stock markets: nonparametric quantile causality approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(53), pages 5712-5727, November.
    18. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    19. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    20. Umutlu, Mehmet & Yargı, Seher Gören & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Market segmentation and international diversification across country and industry portfolios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11906. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.