Economic uncertainty and men’s fertility: analysing the 2010s fertility decline in Finland by field of education and employment characteristics

In the Nordic countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) fell sharply in the 2010s, and increasing disparities in childbearing outcomes across different levels and fields of education have been documented in previous research. However, the role of economic uncertainty in shaping these fertility trends is not well understood. This study examines the male fertility decline in Finland during the 2010s, focusing on how fertility levels and trends vary by field of education and the economic uncertainty associated with these fields. Using full population register data, the analysis explores total fertility rates (TFR) and the expected shares of men having a first birth (TFRp1) across 122 detailed education groups. We find that fertility declines were stronger in fields with initially lower fertility levels, such as ICT, arts, and humanities, and weaker in fields like health, teaching, and agriculture. Weighted linear regression was used to analyse the association between characteristics reflecting uncertainty and the fertility decline. Fields with higher unemployment, lower income, and lower occupational match saw sharper fertility declines. Additionally, as unemployment decreased and income grew during the 2010s, fertility declines were less pronounced in fields that experienced stronger improvements in these areas. The predictive power of the uncertainty variables increased in the 2010s. The uncertainty model accounted for approximately half of the TFR decline and two-thirds of the TFRp1 decline across different fields. The study highlights the growing disparities in fertility patterns by educational field, underlining the increasing importance of economic security in shaping men’s fertility. Keywords: men’s fertility, Finland, unemployment, income, occupational match, occupation specificity