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Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Jessica Nisén

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Sebastian Klüsener

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
    Federal Institute for Population Research
    Vytautas Magnus University)

  • Johan Dahlberg

    (Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA))

  • Lars Dommermuth

    (Statistics Norway)

  • Aiva Jasilioniene

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Michaela Kreyenfeld

    (Hertie School of Governance)

  • Trude Lappegård

    (University of Oslo)

  • Peng Li

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Pekka Martikainen

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
    University of Helsinki)

  • Karel Neels

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Bernhard Riederer

    (Austrian Academy of Sciences)

  • Saskia te Riele

    (Statistics Netherlands)

  • Laura Szabó

    (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute)

  • Alessandra Trimarchi

    (Institut National D’études Démographiques (INED))

  • Francisco Viciana

    (Institute of Statistics and Cartography of Andalusia)

  • Ben Wilson

    (Stockholm University Demography Unit (SUDA))

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
    University of Helsinki
    London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education.

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  • Jessica Nisén & Sebastian Klüsener & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Aiva Jasilioniene & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Trude Lappegård & Peng Li & Pekka Martikainen & Karel Neels & Bernhard Riederer & Sask, 2021. "Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 263-295, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:37:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-020-09562-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10680-020-09562-0
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    Cited by:

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    2. Vanessa Wittemann, 2023. "Educational reproduction in Sweden: A replication of Skopek and Leopold 2020 using Swedish data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(25), pages 733-774.
    3. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Dirk Konietzka & Philippe Lambert & Vincent Jerald Ramos, 2023. "Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 39(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Janetta Nestorová Dická & Filip Lipták, 2024. "Regional fertility predictors based on socioeconomic determinants in Slovakia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-43, September.
    5. Jonas Wood & Leen Marynissen & Jessica Nisén & Peter Fallesen & Karel Neels & Alessandra Trimarchi & Lars Dommermuth & Ruben Van Gaalen & Martin Kolk & Pekka Martikainen, 2021. "Regional variation in women’s education-fertility nexus in Northern and Western Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Shuang Chen, 2022. "The Positive Effect of Women’s Education on Fertility in Low-Fertility China," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(1), pages 125-161, March.
    7. Ansgar Hudde & Henriette Engelhardt, 2023. "Family inequality: On the changing educational gradient of family patterns in Western Germany," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(20), pages 549-590.

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