IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2024-009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

More education and fewer children? the contribution of educational enrollment and attainment to the fertility decline in Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Kathryn C. Beck
  • Julia Hellstrand

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

Period fertility has declined rapidly in Norway in the 2010s, reaching record lows. While there is a clear education-fertility dynamic, significant educational shifts have occurred and it’s unclear how much this contributed to recent fertility declines. To disentangle this, we utilize high-quality Norwegian register data and model yearly transitions between educational enrolment, attainment and childbearing for men and women born in 1964-2002. Using a counterfactual approach, we explore the contribution of educational expansion versus lower fertility by education to the decline in period and cohort fertility. Forecasting is used to complete fertility for cohorts aged 30+. We found that educational expansion contributed partially to the observed cohort fertility decline (2.11-2.01) for 1964-1974 female cohorts but stagnated for younger cohorts and the predicted decline thereafter (1.76 by the 1988 cohort), and the 2010s period fertility decline, is fully driven by decreased fertility across educational levels. For men, educational expansion was slower and didn’t contribute to the fertility decline. For both genders, the contribution of changed fertility behavior was strongest among the lower educated, particularly for predicted ultimate childlessness. Our results suggest that increased education isn’t the main fertility barrier in contemporary Norway. Instead, socioeconomic resources increasingly promote childbearing for both genders. Keywords: Educational attainment, educational enrollment, fertility decline, Norway, multi-state model, fertility forecasting

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn C. Beck & Julia Hellstrand & Mikko Myrskylä, 2024. "More education and fewer children? the contribution of educational enrollment and attainment to the fertility decline in Norway," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-009, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-009
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2024-009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2024-009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jessica Nisén & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä & Karri Silventoinen, 2018. "Education, Other Socioeconomic Characteristics Across the Life Course, and Fertility Among Finnish Men," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 337-366, August.
    2. Marika Jalovaara & Gerda Neyer & Gunnar Andersson & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Peter Fallesen & Trude Lappegård, 2019. "Education, Gender, and Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 563-586, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(2), pages 191-221, May.
    2. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Less partnering, less children, or both? Analysis of the drivers of first-birth decline in Finland since 2010?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Patrick Präg & Christiaan Monden & Seongsoo Choi, 2020. "The sibsize revolution in an international context: Declining social disparities in the number of siblings in 26 countries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(17), pages 461-500.
    4. Cristina Moya & Anna Goodman & Ilona Koupil & Rebecca Sear, 2021. "Historical Context Changes Pathways of Parental Influence on Reproduction: An Empirical Test from 20th-Century Sweden," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-22, July.
    5. Francis Kramarz & Olof Rosenqvist & Oskar Nordström Skans, 2023. "How family background shapes the relationship between human capital and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 235-262, January.
    6. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2025. "Economic uncertainty and men’s fertility: analysing the 2010s fertility decline in Finland by field of education and employment characteristics," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2025-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Kolk, Martin, 2019. "Demographic Theory and Population Ethics – Relationships between Population Size and Population Growth," SocArXiv 62wxd, Center for Open Science.
    8. Monika Mynarska & Zuzanna Brzozowska, 2022. "Things to Gain, Things to Lose: Perceived Costs and Benefits of Children and Intention to Remain Childless in Poland," Social Inclusion, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(3), pages 160-171.
    9. Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Tiit Tammaru, 2023. "Neighbourhoods and Workplaces: Are They Related to the Fertility of Immigrants and Their Descendants? A Register-Based Study of Finland, 1999–2014," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 209-231, March.
    10. Linus Andersson, 2023. "The Role of Gender Differences in Partnering and Re-partnering for Gender Differences in Completed Fertility," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-28, April.
    11. Bijlsma, Maarten J. & Wilson, Ben, 2020. "Modelling the socio-economic determinants of fertility: a mediation analysis using the parametric g-formula," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102414, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "Educational field, economic uncertainty, and fertility decline in Finland in 2010–2019," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Tomáš Sobotka & Éva Beaujouan & Jan Van Bavel, 2017. "Introduction: education and fertility in low-fertility settings," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 15(1), pages 001-16.
    14. Daniël van Wijk, 2024. "Higher incomes are increasingly associated with higher fertility: Evidence from the Netherlands, 2008–2022," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(26), pages 809-822.
    15. Jessica Nisén & Sebastian Klüsener & Johan Dahlberg & Lars Dommermuth & Aiva Jasilioniene & Michaela Kreyenfeld & Trude Lappegård & Peng Li & Pekka Martikainen & Karel Neels & Bernhard Riederer & Sask, 2021. "Educational Differences in Cohort Fertility Across Sub-national Regions in Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 263-295, March.
    16. Christian Dudel & Sebastian Klüsener, 2019. "New opportunities for comparative male fertility research: insights from a new data resource based on high-quality birth registers," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-023, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    17. Nadia Sturm & Jan Van Bavel, 2024. "Left behind single in the partnering market? Entry into cohabiting unions by women and men with low educational attainment across regions of Europe, cohorts 1960 to 1985," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(43), pages 1371-1410.
    18. Dudel, Christian & Klüsener, Sebastian, 2019. "New opportunities for comparative male fertility research: Insights from a new data resource based on high-quality birth registers," SocArXiv 8kqws, Center for Open Science.
    19. Ester Lazzari, 2021. "Changing trends between education, childlessness and completed fertility: a cohort analysis of Australian women born in 1952–1971," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 417-441, December.
    20. Hanna Virtanen & Mikko Silliman & Tiina Kuuppelomäki & Kristiina Huttunen, "undated". "Education, Gender, and Family Formation," Working Papers 340, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Norway;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Wilhelm (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.