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The Impact of Carbon Taxes on the Value of Fossil-Fuel Reserves and the Efficiency of Climate Policy

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Abstract

The present study analyzes the impact of carbon pricing along with other policies on the value of fossil fuel resources, CO2 emissions, and economic welfare. It employs a model based on the Hotelling analysis of resource values and calibrates this approach to data on fossil resources, costs, demands, and CO2 emissions. Total fossil-fuel resource rents are estimated to be $17 trillion (2021 US$) without carbon pricing. Oil and gas rents are unchanged for low carbon taxes but would decline by 40% with a $100/tCO2 price. The losses in producer values would be only about 10% of the carbon tax revenues. The study also shows that other policies Ð such as ones involving ethical investing or subsidies for renewable energy Ð are very inefficient and poor substitutes for carbon pricing.

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  • William Nordhaus, 2022. "The Impact of Carbon Taxes on the Value of Fossil-Fuel Reserves and the Efficiency of Climate Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2344, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2345
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    1. Kenneth Gillingham & William Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly, 2018. "Modeling Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: A Multimodel Comparison," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 791-826.
    2. Coulomb, Renaud & Henriet, Fanny, 2018. "The Grey Paradox: How fossil-fuel owners can benefit from carbon taxation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-223.
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    5. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    6. Ginsburgh, Victor A. & Van der Heyden, Ludo, 1988. "On extending the negishi approach to computing equilibria: The case of government price support policies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 168-178, February.
    7. Coulomb, Renaud & Henriet, Fanny, 2018. "The Grey Paradox: How fossil-fuel owners can benefit from carbon taxation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-223.
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