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Contagion versus flight to quality in financial markets

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Abstract

None doubts that financial markets are related (interdependent). What is not so clear is whether there exists contagion among them or not, its intensity, and its causal direction. The aim of this paper is to define properly the term contagion (different from interdependence) and to present a formal test for its existence, the magnitude of its intensity, and for its direction. Our definition of contagion lies on tail dependence measures and it is made operational through its equivalence with some copula properties. In order to do that, we define a NEW copula, a variant of the Gumbel type, that is sufficiently flexible to describe different patterns of dependence, as well as being able to model asymmetric effects of the analyzed variables (something not allowed with the standard copula models). Finally, we estimate our copula model to test the intensity and the direction of the extreme causality between bonds and stocks markets (in particular, the flight to quality phenomenon) during crises periods. We find evidence of a substitution effect between Dow Jones Corporate Bonds Index with 2 years maturity and Dow Jones Stock Price Index when one of them is through distress periods. On the contrary, if both are going through crises periods a contagion effect is observed. The analysis of the corresponding 30 years maturity bonds with the stock market reflects independent effects of the shocks.

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  • Olmo, José, 2005. "Contagion versus flight to quality in financial markets," UC3M Working papers. Economics we051810, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we051810
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    1. Felices, Guillermo & Grisse, Christian & Yang, Jing, 2009. "International financial transmission: emerging and mature markets," Bank of England working papers 373, Bank of England.
    2. Kallenberg, Wilbert C.M., 2008. "Modelling dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 127-146, February.
    3. Jammazi, Rania & Tiwari, Aviral Kr. & Ferrer, Román & Moya, Pablo, 2015. "Time-varying dependence between stock and government bond returns: International evidence with dynamic copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 74-93.
    4. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    5. Francine Gresnigt & Erik Kole & Philip Hans Franses, 2017. "Specification Testing in Hawkes Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 139-171.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Hansen, Erwin & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Cross-asset contagion in the financial crisis: A Bayesian time-varying parameter approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-114.
    7. Soylu, Pınar Kaya & Güloğlu, Bülent, 2019. "Financial contagion and flight to quality between emerging markets and U.S. bond market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Dirk G. Baur, 2010. "Stock-bond co-movements and cross-country linkages," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 111-129.
    9. Withanage, Yeshan & Jayasinghe, Prabhath, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers between South Asian Stock Markets: Evidence from Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82782, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2017.
    10. Baur, Dirk G. & Lucey, Brian M., 2009. "Flights and contagion--An empirical analysis of stock-bond correlations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 339-352, December.
    11. Paulo Horta & Sérgio Lagoa & Luís Martins, 2016. "Unveiling investor-induced channels of financial contagion in the 2008 financial crisis using copulas," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 625-637, April.
    12. Paulo Horta & Carlos Mendes & Isabel Vieira, 2008. "Contagion effects of the US Subprime Crisis on Developed Countries," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2008_08, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
    13. Grillini, Stefano & Ozkan, Aydin & Sharma, Abhijit, 2022. "Static and dynamic liquidity spillovers in the Eurozone: The role of financial contagion and the Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    14. Silvapulle, Param & Fenech, Jean Pierre & Thomas, Alice & Brooks, Rob, 2016. "Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads and contagion in the peripheral EU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 83-92.
    15. Craig S. Hakkio & William R. Keeton, 2009. "Financial stress: what is it, how can it be measured, and why does it matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q II), pages 5-50.
    16. Selcuk Bayraci & Sercan Demiralay & Hatice Gaye Gencer, 2018. "Stock†Bond Co†Movements And Flight†To†Quality In G7 Countries: A Time†Frequency Analysis," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 29-49, January.
    17. Ponrajah, Jeremey & Ning, Cathy, 2023. "Stock–bond dependence and flight to/from quality," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Chiu-Lan Chang & Paul L. Hsueh, 2013. "An Investigation of the Flight-to-Quality Effect: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 53-69, September.
    19. Robert B. Durand & Markus Junker & Alex Szimayer, 2010. "The flight‐to‐quality effect: a copula‐based analysis," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(2), pages 281-299, June.

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