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Financial contagion and flight to quality between emerging markets and U.S. bond market

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  • Soylu, Pınar Kaya
  • Güloğlu, Bülent

Abstract

Focusing on eight emerging markets from South Asia to South America, this paper analyzes three risk spillovers – flight to quality, flight from quality and financial contagion – between emerging market stocks and the U.S. bonds. In doing so, it employs Granger causality tests in moments developed by Chen (2016) which distinctly allow for examining causality from the left tail of one distribution to the right tail of another distribution, and vice versa. It has a sample of daily closing prices for a period of more than 14 years, from 01/01/2002 to 26/02/2016, but also uses an additional 403 observations up to 14/09/2017 for out-of-sample tests. Besides, it conducts the Balcilar et al. (2016, 2017) and the Hong (2001) Granger causality in mean, variance and quantiles tests and compare their results with those of Chen. Its findings suggest that Chen’s test results outperform the others in terms of robustness and reveal that the U.S. monetary policy could indeed influence investors willing to park their money in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Soylu, Pınar Kaya & Güloğlu, Bülent, 2019. "Financial contagion and flight to quality between emerging markets and U.S. bond market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:50:y:2019:i:c:s1062940818304042
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.100992
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Bing & Li, Li & Peng, Fei & Anwar, Sajid, 2020. "Risk contagion in the banking network: New evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2021. "Connectedness structures of sovereign bond markets in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Cagliesi, Gabriella & Guidi, Francesco, 2021. "A three-tiered nested analytical approach to financial integration: The case of emerging and frontier equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Zheng, Yanting & Luan, Xin & Lu, Xin & Liu, Jiaming, 2023. "A new view of risk contagion by decomposition of dependence structure: Empirical analysis of Sino-US stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Janus, Jakub, 2022. "Cross-border flights to safe assets in bond markets: evidence from emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 113875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Janus, Jakub, 2023. "Flights to safe assets in bond markets: Evidence from emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Syed Aun R. Rizvi & Ali Sakti, 2022. "Did green debt instruments aid diversification during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    8. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial contagion; Flight to quality; Causality in quantiles; Stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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