IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/csa/wpaper/2020-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The labor market and poverty impacts of COVID-19 in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Ronak Jain
  • Joshua Budlender
  • Rocco Zizzamia
  • Ihsaan Bassier

Abstract

We use newly-released South African data to present the first estimates of COVID-19-related employment and poverty impacts in a developing country. We observe a 40% decline in active employment. Half of this comprises job termina¬tions, suggesting persistent labor market effects. Initially vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected. Exploiting the dataset’s panel dimension and compar¬ing lockdown incomes of job losers to re-weighted job retainers, we estimate that 20-33% of job losers fall into poverty. Only 20% of those temporarily not working received the intended relief, while a third of job losers had no access to any major form of social protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronak Jain & Joshua Budlender & Rocco Zizzamia & Ihsaan Bassier, 2020. "The labor market and poverty impacts of COVID-19 in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2020-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4cda648d-2a27-4209-8c54-db9a82604eb1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    2. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Gary Solon & Steven J. Haider & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2015. "What Are We Weighting For?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 301-316.
    5. Bassier, Ihsaan & Budlender, Joshua & Zizzamia, Rocco & Leibbrandt, Murray & Ranchhod, Vimal, 2021. "Locked down and locked out: Repurposing social assistance as emergency relief to informal workers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Hal R. Varian, 2014. "Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    7. Marina A. Kartseva & Polina O. Kuznetsova, 2020. "The economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic: which groups will suffer more in terms of loss of employment and income?," Population and Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(2), pages 26-33, April.
    8. Andrew Kerr, 2018. "Job Flows, Worker Flows and Churning in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(S1), pages 141-166, January.
    9. Gillian Paull, 2002. "Biases in the reporting of labour market dynamics," IFS Working Papers W02/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ihsaan Bassier & Joshua Budlender & Maya Goldman, 2022. "Social distress and (some) relief: Estimating the impact of pandemic job loss on poverty in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-80, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Nicolas Frémeaux, 2023. "The More, the Better? Individual and Joint Interviewing in Surveys," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 149, pages 63-96.
    3. Pérez Pérez, Jorge, 2020. "The minimum wage in formal and informal sectors: Evidence from an inflation shock," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Daniel Schaefer & Carl Singleton, 2017. "Real Wages and Hours in the Great Recession: Evidence from Firms and their Entry-Level Jobs," CESifo Working Paper Series 6766, CESifo.
    5. Max Nathan & Anna Rosso, 2017. "Innovative events," Development Working Papers 429, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 08 Apr 2019.
    6. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Thabiso Molemohi & Frederich Kirsten, 2023. "The Role of Personal Characteristics in Shaping Gender-Biased Job Losses during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, April.
    7. Krolikowski, Pawel & Zabek, Mike & Coate, Patrick, 2020. "Parental proximity and earnings after job displacements," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Spears, Dean, 2020. "Exposure to open defecation can account for the Indian enigma of child height," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. Stefan Pichler & Katherine Wen & Nicolas R. Ziebarth, 2021. "Positive Health Externalities of Mandating Paid Sick Leave," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 715-743, June.
    10. Cengiz, Doruk & Dube, Arindrajit & Lindner, Attila & Zipperer, Ben, 2018. "The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs: evidence from the United States using a bunching estimator," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88682, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Fisayo Fagbemi & Tolulope T. Osinubi & Olufemi S. Olatunde, 2022. "COVID-19 and Unemployment: Showcasing Sub-Saharan African Experience," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 11(1), pages 24-33, June.
    12. Damian Clarke & Nicol'as Paris & Benjam'in Villena-Rold'an, 2023. "(Frisch-Waugh-Lovell)': On the Estimation of Regression Models by Row," Papers 2311.15829, arXiv.org.
    13. Michihito Ando & Masato Furuichi, 2022. "The association of COVID-19 employment shocks with suicide and safety net use: An early-stage investigation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-26, March.
    14. Carmen Aina & Irene Brunetti & Chiara Mussida & Sergio Scicchitano, 2023. "Distributional effects of COVID-19," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(1), pages 221-256, March.
    15. Maya Goldman & Ihsaan Bassier & Joshua Budlender & Lindi Mzankomo & Ingrid Woolard & Murray Leibbrandt, 2021. "Simulation of options to replace the special COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant and close the poverty gap at the food poverty line," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-165, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Simone Schotte & Rocco Zizzamia, 2023. "The livelihood impacts of COVID-19 in urban South Africa: a view from below," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-30, January.
    17. Bassier, Ihsaan, 2022. "Firms and inequality when unemployment is high," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117999, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Piluca Alvargonzález & Marina Gómez & Carmen Martínez-Carrascal & Myroslav Pidkuyko & Ernesto Villanueva, 2022. "Analysis of labor flows and consumption in Spain during COVID-19," Occasional Papers 2202, Banco de España.
    19. René Böheim & Philipp Stöllinger, 2021. "Decomposition of the gender wage gap using the LASSO estimator," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(10), pages 817-828, June.
    20. Sarah Brown & Gurleen Popli & Alessandro Sasso, 2022. "Decomposing the gender reservation wage gap in Italy: A regional perspective," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 499-540, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour markets; poverty; unemployment; COVID-19; social protection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2020-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Coffey (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csaoxuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.