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Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?

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  • Rose, Andrew
  • Moser, Christoph

Abstract

The Doha multilateral round of trade negotiations sponsored by the WTO has been dragging on for over a decade, with no end in sight. In this short paper we assess empirically what determines the duration of trade negotiations, focusing on the span between the start of trade talks and their conclusion. We use data from 88 regional trade agreements between 1988 and 2009, and a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model. Four factors are robust determinants of the length of RTA negotiations. Negotiations are more protracted when there are more countries at the negotiation table, and when the countries are not from the same region. Negotiations between more open and richer countries are also finished more quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew & Moser, Christoph, 2012. "Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8993
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    1. Moser, Christoph & Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Who benefits from regional trade agreements? The view from the stock market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 31-47.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoram Z. Haftel & Alexander Thompson, 2018. "When do states renegotiate investment agreements? The impact of arbitration," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-48, March.
    2. Byungyul Park & John Beghin, 2023. "Exploring the impact of economic integration agreements through extreme bounds analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, February.
    3. Jong Hee Park & Byung Koo Kim, 2020. "Why your neighbor matters: Positions in preferential trade agreement networks and export growth in global value chains," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 381-410, November.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of Aid for Trade flows on the Accession to the World Trade Organization," EconStor Preprints 261331, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    6. Jonas Gamso & Robert Grosse, 2021. "Trade agreement depth, foreign direct investment, and the moderating role of property rights," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 308-325, June.
    7. Teresa L. Cyrus, 2021. "Why Do Countries Form Regional Trade Agreements? A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 417-434, April.
    8. Lizzette ARROYO & Ramon A. CASTILLO-PONCE, 2019. "The Duration Of Trade Agreement Negotiations," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 19(2), pages 19-36.
    9. Florian Mölders, 2016. "On the Path to Trade Liberalisation: Political Regimes in Trade Negotiations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(7), pages 890-924, July.
    10. Florian Mölders, 2012. "On the Path to Trade Liberalization: Political Regimes in International Trade Negotiations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1245, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Peter H. Egger & Mario Larch & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Gravity Estimations with Interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 44-61, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cox; Data; Duration; Empirical; Gatt; Income; Regional; Survival; Wto;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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