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The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Holger Breinlich
  • Elsa Leromain
  • Dennis Novy
  • Thomas Sampson
  • Ahmed Usman

Abstract

We study stock market reactions to the Brexit referendum on 23 June 2016 in order to assess investors’ expectations about the effects of leaving the European Union on the UK economy. Our results suggest that initial stock price movements were driven by fears of a cyclical downturn and by the sterling depreciation following the referendum. We also find tentative evidence that market reactions to two subsequent speeches by Theresa May (her Conservative Party conference and Lancaster House speeches) were more closely correlated with potential changes to tariffs and non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade, indicating that investors may have updated their expectations in light of the possibility of a ‘hard Brexit’. We do not find a correlation between the share of EU migrants in different industries and stock market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit - Evidence from the Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 7224, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; depreciation; event study; recession; stock market; tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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