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A Model of Momentum

Author

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  • Laura Xiaolei Liu
  • Lu Zhang

Abstract

Optimal investment of firms implies that expected stock returns are tied with the expected marginal benefit of investment divided by the marginal cost of investment. Winners have higher expected growth and expected marginal productivity (two major components of the marginal benefit of investment), and earn higher expected stock returns than losers. The investment model succeeds in capturing average momentum profits, reversal of momentum in long horizons, as well as the interaction of momentum with market capitalization, firm age, trading volume, and stock return volatility. However, the model fails to reproduce procyclical momentum profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Xiaolei Liu & Lu Zhang, 2011. "A Model of Momentum," NBER Working Papers 16747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16747
    Note: AP CF EFG
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    2. Kang, Hankil & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2013. "Do the production-based factors capture the time-varying patterns in stock returns?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 122-135.
    3. Lin, Xiaoji & Zhang, Lu, 2013. "The investment manifesto," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 351-366.
    4. Egidijus Bikas & Evelina Glinskytė, 2021. "Financial Factors Determining the Investment Behavior of Lithuanian Business Companies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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