The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Christopher J. Neely & Joshua M. Ulrich & Paul A. Weller, 2007. "The adaptive markets hypothesis: evidence from the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2006-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
References listed on IDEAS
- Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
- Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. "Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
- Chang, P H Kevin & Osler, Carol L, 1999. "Methodical Madness: Technical Analysis and the Irrationality of Exchange-Rate Forecasts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 636-661, October.
- Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
"Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Scholarly Articles 27693805, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain & Hall, Alastair, 1998.
"Predictive tests for structural change with unknown breakpoint,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 209-233, February.
- Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay & Alastair Hall, 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-20, CIRANO.
- Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000.
"Further insights on the puzzle of technical analysis profitability,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 196-224.
- Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further Insights on the Puzzle of Technical Analysis Profitability," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00308986, HAL.
- Cecilia Chaing & Lindsay McSweeney, 2010. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," CPI Journal, Competition Policy International, vol. 6.
- Neely, Christopher & Weller, Paul & Dittmar, Rob, 1997.
"Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 405-426, December.
- Dittmar, Robert & Neely, Christopher J & Weller, Paul, 1996. "Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert Dittmar & Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1997. "Is technical analysis in the foreign exchange market profitable? a genetic programming approach," Working Papers 1996-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997.
"The Limits of Arbitrage,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
- Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999.
"Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data snooping, technical trading, rule performance, and the bootstrap," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119144, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Sullivan, Ryan & Timmermann, Allan G & White, Halbert, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," CEPR Discussion Papers 1976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Allan Timmermann & Halbert White & Ryan Sullivan, 1998. "Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap," FMG Discussion Papers dp303, Financial Markets Group.
- Martin, Anna D., 2001. "Technical trading rules in the spot foreign exchange markets of developing countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-68, February.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007.
"The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Economic Research Papers 269739, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Schwert, G. William, 2003.
"Anomalies and market efficiency,"
Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974,
Elsevier.
- G. William Schwert, 2002. "Anomalies and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 9277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dueker, Michael & Neely, Christopher J., 2007.
"Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 279-296, February.
- Michael J. Dueker & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?," Working Papers 2001-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001.
"Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 2000. "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 251, CESifo.
- Okunev, John & White, Derek, 2003. "Do Momentum-Based Strategies Still Work in Foreign Currency Markets?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 425-447, June.
- Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-318, October.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:5:p:1791-1820 is not listed on IDEAS
- Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
- Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1819, October.
- Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February.
- Olson, Dennis, 2004. "Have trading rule profits in the currency markets declined over time?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-105, January.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
- Stephen J. Taylor, 1994. "Trading futures using a channel rule: A study of the predictive power of technical analysis with currency examples," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 215-235, April.
- Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-1226, December.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992.
"Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2000. "Further Insights on the Puzzle of Technical Analysis Profitability," Post-Print hal-00308986, HAL.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2007. "What Do We Know About The Profitability Of Technical Analysis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 786-826, September.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007.
"The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Economic Research Papers 269739, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37582.
- Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006.
"The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations,"
Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Finance 0512033, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," WIFO Working Papers 264, WIFO.
- Taylor, Mark & Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2014. "Forty Years, Thirty Currencies and 21,000 Trading Rules: A Large-scale, Data-Snooping Robust Analysis of Technical Trading in t," CEPR Discussion Papers 10018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan, 2016. "Technical trading: Is it still beating the foreign exchange market?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 188-208.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2009.
"Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?,"
Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
- Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data," WIFO Working Papers 289, WIFO.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Profitability of Technical Stock Trading: Has it Moved from Daily to Intraday Data?," WIFO Working Papers 323, WIFO.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
- Yung-Ho Chang, 2019. "Cross-market information spillover and the performance of technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 211-227, April.
- Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
- de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009.
"The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
- de Zwart, G.J. & Markwat, T.D. & Swinkels, L.A.P. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2007-096-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
- Zarrabi, Nima & Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry, 2017. "FX technical trading rules can be profitable sometimes!," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 113-127.
- Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
- Maxime Charlebois & Stephen Sapp, 2007. "Temporal Patterns in Foreign Exchange Returns and Options," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 443-470, March.
- Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
- Friesen, Geoffrey C. & Weller, Paul A. & Dunham, Lee M., 2009. "Price trends and patterns in technical analysis: A theoretical and empirical examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1089-1100, June.
- Manahov, Viktor & Hudson, Robert & Gebka, Bartosz, 2014. "Does high frequency trading affect technical analysis and market efficiency? And if so, how?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 131-157.
- Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2013.
"Lessons from the evolution of foreign exchange trading strategies,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3783-3798.
- Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Lessons from the evolution of foreign exchange trading strategies," Working Papers 2011-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:02:p:467-488_09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/jfq .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.