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Computing equilibrium bond prices in the Vayanos-Vila model

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  • Hayashi, Fumio

Abstract

We develop tools for computing equilibrium bond prices for the discrete-time version of the Vayanos–Vila (2009) model. With the maturity structure included in pricing factors, factor loadings for equilibrium bond yields depends critically on parameters describing maturity structure dynamics and other model parameters. An illustrative example shows that the effect on the yield curve of a supply shock originating in a given maturity, although hump-shaped around the originating maturity, is to change yields broadly across all maturities.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayashi, Fumio, 2018. "Computing equilibrium bond prices in the Vayanos-Vila model," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 181-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:72:y:2018:i:2:p:181-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2018.04.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    2. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    3. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2016. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 2, pages 011-062, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    5. Canlin Li & Min Wei, 2013. "Term Structure Modeling with Supply Factors and the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchase Progarms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 3-39, March.
    6. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
    7. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    8. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    9. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-1317, July.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke, 2010. "Opening remarks: the economic outlook and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-16.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    3. Hosono, Kaoru & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Watanabe, Shuji, 2023. "Pricing implications of intervention and debt management in the primary market of Japanese government bonds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vayanos–Vila model; Computation; Maturity structure; Yield curve; Risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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