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Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek

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  • Vives, Xavier
  • Cespa, Giovanni

Abstract

We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model. We show that prices are farther away from (closer to) fundamentals compared with average expectations if and only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in turn, occur whenever traders speculate on short-run price movements. For a given, positive level of residual payoff uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a "Keynesian" region; the complementary region is "Hayekian" in that prices are systematically closer to fundamentals than average expectations. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and noise trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions and identifies the set of deep parameters for which traders abide by Keynes' dictum of concentrating on an asset "long term prospects and those only." The analysis explains accommodation and trend chasing strategies as well as momentum and reversal.

Suggested Citation

  • Vives, Xavier & Cespa, Giovanni, 2009. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," CEPR Discussion Papers 7506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7506
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Average expectations; Efficient market hypothesis; Higher order beliefs; Long and short-term trading; Momentum; Opaqueness; Over-reliance on public information; Reversal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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