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Prices as Aggregators of Private Information: Evidence from S&P 500 Futures Data

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  • Cho, Jin-Wan
  • Krishnan, Murugappa

Abstract

This paper assesses the importance of the role of prices as aggregators of private information in the S&P 500 future market. We estimate primitive parameters of the Hellwig (1980) noisy rational expectations model, when both prices and terminal values are observable. The variance-covariance parameters governing futuers prices and terminal values can be inverted to obtain estimate of the primitive parmeters, including the precision of private infromation and the variance of liquidity-motivated trades. We also estimate coefficients in the linear price conjecture, weights that agents place on different sources of information, and the informativeness of prices. We find that the variance of the error term in agents' private signals is several orders of magnitude larger than the variance of liquidity-motivated trades. But, in a large market, prices are still so informative that the market as a whole appears to weight them more than prior beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Jin-Wan & Krishnan, Murugappa, 2000. "Prices as Aggregators of Private Information: Evidence from S&P 500 Futures Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 111-126, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:35:y:2000:i:01:p:111-126_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kovalenkov, Alexander & Vives, Xavier, 2014. "Competitive rational expectations equilibria without apology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 211-235.
    2. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2012. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 539-580.
    3. Chi Ming Ho, 2013. "Private information, overconfidence and intraday trading behaviour: empirical study of the Taiwan stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 325-345, February.
    4. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts & Chester Spatt, 2010. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Under Asymmetric Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1503-1543, April.
    5. Cho, Jin-Wan, 2007. "Earnings announcements, private information, and strategic informed trading," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 117-149, January.
    6. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    7. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts & Chester Spatt, "undated". "Equilibrium Asset Pricing Under Heterogeneous Information," GSIA Working Papers 2003-E42, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. Yu Cong & Murugappa Krishnan, 2012. "Measuring firm-specific informational efficiency without conditioning on a public announcement," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(21), pages 1799-1809, November.
    9. M. Numan Ünlü, 2008. "Expectations of Professionals in The Turkish Stock Market: a Study of a Monthly Reuters Survey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 22(1+2), pages 1-16.
    10. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    11. Andrei, Daniel & Friedman, Henry & Ozel, N. Bugra, 2023. "Economic uncertainty and investor attention," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 179-217.
    12. Manela, Asaf, 2014. "The value of diffusing information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 181-199.
    13. Yu Cong & Rani Hoitash & Murugappa Krishnan, 2010. "Event study with imperfect competition and private information: earnings announcements revisited," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 383-411, April.

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