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Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing

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  • Makarov, Igor
  • Rytchkov, Oleg

Abstract

We study the properties of rational expectation equilibria (REE) in dynamic asset pricing models with heterogeneously informed agents. We show that under mild conditions the state space of such models in REE can be infinite dimensional. This result indicates that the domain of analytically tractable dynamic models with asymmetric information is severely restricted. We also demonstrate that even though the serial correlation of returns is predominantly determined by the dynamics of stochastic equity supply, under certain circumstances asymmetric information can generate positive autocorrelation of returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:147:y:2012:i:3:p:941-966
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2012.01.020
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    5. Goulding, Christian L. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Mazzoleni, Michele G., 2023. "Momentum turning points," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 378-406.
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    9. Tan, Fei & Walker, Todd B., 2015. "Solving generalized multivariate linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 95-111.
    10. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-129.
    11. Ayan Bhattacharya, 2022. "Arbitrage from a Bayesian's Perspective," Papers 2211.03244, arXiv.org.
    12. Egan, Daniel & Merkle, Christoph & Weber, Martin, 2014. "Second-order beliefs and the individual investor," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 652-666.
    13. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    14. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    15. Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K. & Gerlagh, Reyer, 2019. "Regulating Global Externalities," Discussion Paper 2019-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Han, Zhao & Tan, Fei & Wu, Jieran, 2022. "Analytic policy function iteration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    17. Hong‐Yi Chen & Pin‐Huang Chou & Chia‐Hsun Hsieh, 2018. "Persistency of the momentum effect," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(5), pages 856-892, November.
    18. Marmora, Paul & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2018. "Learning about noise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 209-224.
    19. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Rondina, Giacomo & Walker, Todd B., 2021. "Confounding dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    21. Ripamonti, Alexandre & Silva, Diego & Moreira Neto, Eurico, 2018. "Asset Pricing and Asymmetric Information," MPRA Paper 87403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Jonathan J Adams, 2019. "Macroeconomic Models with Incomplete Information and Endogenous Signals," Working Papers 001004, University of Florida, Department of Economics.
    23. Jurado, Kyle, 2023. "Rational inattention in the frequency domain," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    24. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    25. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset pricing; Asymmetric information; Higher order expectations; Momentum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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