IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v19y1987i2p255-277.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?

Author

Listed:
  • Ito, Takatoshi
  • Roley, V. Vance

Abstract

Intra-daily movements in the yen/dollar exchange rate were examined in four non-overlapping segments within each business day from January1980 to September 1985. The empirical results yielded several conclusions. First, most depreciation of the yen (appreciation of the dollar) from late 1982 to early 1984 occurred in the New York market. The direction of the yen was mostly neutral in the Tokyo market. Also, the volatility of the exchange rate decreased considerably in the Tokyo market. The volatility in the New York market, on the other hand, did not decrease untilvery recently. Second, market efficiency was examined in terms of the random-walk behavior of short-run movements in the yen/dollar rate. Information on the preceding segments within a day was sometimes significant in predicting the exchange rate movement in a market. Third, there is evidence of the "profit-taking" behavior, or overshooting, in that a large jump (more than 3 absolute yen) in any market tends to be reversed by a fifth of the jump during the same day in the next market. Finally,the relative effects of news from the U.S. and Japan were examined explicitly both with respect to possible major events behind large jumps andthe response of the yen/dollar rate to particular economic announcements in both countries. Over the entire sample period, news concerning the U.S. money stock had the only significant effects.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ito, Takatoshi & Roley, V. Vance, 1987. "News from the U.S. and Japan : Which moves the yen/dollar exchange rate?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-277, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:19:y:1987:i:2:p:255-277
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0304-3932(87)90049-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. V. Vance Roley, 1985. "The response of interest rates to money announcements under alternative operating procedures and reserve requirement systems," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 7, pages 127-160.
    3. Longworth, David, 1984. "Exchange rates and `news': A comment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 119-121, April.
    4. Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-424, November.
    5. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
    7. Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-354, August.
    8. Ito, Takatoshi, 1988. "Use of (Time-Domain) Vector Autoregressions to Test Uncovered Interest Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 296-305, May.
    9. Batten, Dallas S. & Thornton, Daniel L., 1984. "Discount rate changes and the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 279-292, December.
    10. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "Exchange rates and `news': Reply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 123-126, April.
    12. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Weekly money supply announcements and the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 67(Apr), pages 3-15.
    13. Takatoshi Ito, 1983. "Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1985. "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises and Fed Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 425-438, November.
    15. Edwards, Sebastian, 1982. "Exchange rates and `news': A multi-currency approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 211-224, January.
    16. Hakkio, Craig S & Pearce, Douglas K, 1985. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates to Economic News," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(4), pages 621-636, October.
    17. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    18. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    19. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "The Money Supply Announcements Puzzle: Review and Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 644-657, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "U.S. Monetary Policy Regimes and U.S.-Japan Financial Relations," NBER Working Papers 1858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1988. "Intraday yen/dollar exchange rate movements: news or noise?," Research Working Paper 88-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. J.S.Y. Wong, 1988. "The Role of 'News' in the Australian Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 88-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Dec), pages 31-50.
    5. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
    6. V. Vance Roley & Simon M. Wheatley, 1990. "Temporal Variation in the Interest-Rate Response to Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 3471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Terry Boulter & Celeste Ping Fern Tan, 2000. "The Short Run Impact of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements on the Australian Dollar during 1998," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 082, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    8. S. Rubun Dey & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 417-464.
    9. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Thiewes, Harold, 2008. "The effect of macroeconomic news on German closed-end funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 708-724, November.
    10. V. Vance Roley, 1986. "The Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements under Alternative Operating Prosedures and Reserve Requirement Systems," NBER Working Papers 1812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. V. Vance Roley & Carl E. Walsh, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 1011-1039.
    12. Sanjay Ramchander & Marc Simpson & Mukesh Chaudhry, 2003. "The impact of inflationary news on money market yields and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 85-101, March.
    13. Kevin Ross, 1991. "Contemporaneous Reserve Accounting, M1 Announcements and Exchange Rate Movements," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 177-187, Apr-Jun.
    14. Tanner, Glenn, 1997. "A note on economic news and intraday exchange rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 573-585, April.
    15. Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2010. "The Influence Of Fundamentals On Exchange Rates: Findings From Analyses Of News Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 680-704, September.
    16. Deaves, Richard & Melino, Angelo & Pesando, James E., 1987. "The response of interest rates to the Federal Reserve's weekly money announcements : The 'puzzle' of anticipated money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 393-404, May.
    17. Grant McQueen & V. Vance Roley, 1990. "Stock Prices, News, and Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 3520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hodgson, Allan & Kremmer, Michael L. & Lee, Shane, 1998. "Endogenous and exogenous determinants of interest rates," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2-3), pages 249-263, September.
    19. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriele M. Lepori, 2022. "Do financial markets respond to macroeconomic surprises? Evidence from the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2371, May.
    20. Winston T. Lin, 2005. "Currency forecasting based on an error components-seemingly unrelated nonlinear regression model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(8), pages 593-605.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:19:y:1987:i:2:p:255-277. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.