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Detecting Structural Breaks in Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

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  • KoÄ enda, Evžen

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence of structural breaks in the exchange rates of European transition economies. The Vogelsang (1997) testing procedure is used. The technique allows for the detection of a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic univariate time series, and does not impose restrictions on the nature of data. In many cases the detected breaks appear to be linked with policy measures adopted at the same time. In several cases the trend break coincided with a marked change in economic development. In others no break was detected. The results seem to depend on the economic climate of a particular country.

Suggested Citation

  • KoÄ enda, Evžen, 2000. "Detecting Structural Breaks in Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 2546, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2546
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    Cited by:

    1. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    2. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    3. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2006. "Pilgrims to the Eurozone: How far, how fast?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 311-327, December.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Michal Franta & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova, 2007. "Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?," Working Papers 2007/10, Czech National Bank.
    6. Lazăr, Dorina & Todea, Alexandru & Filip, Diana, 2012. "Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 338-350.
    7. Evžen Koèenda & Tigran Poghosyan, 2010. "Exchange Rate Risk in Central European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 22-39, February.
    8. Gorman, Michael & Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Roessler, Matthew H., 2020. "Dynamic interactions between Central European currencies and the euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    9. Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Public Investment and Fiscal Performance in the New EU Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 43-71, March.
    10. Jörg Rahn, 2004. "Bilaterial equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," Macroeconomics 0401010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jayanthakumaran, K. & Pahlavani, M., 2006. "Australia and New Zealand CER agreement and breakpoints in bilateral trade: an application of the Wald-type test," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    12. Kocenda, Evzen & Valachy, Juraj, 2006. "Exchange rate volatility and regime change: A Visegrad comparison," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 727-753, December.
    13. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "Fiscal convergence in the European Union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-330, December.
    14. Rahn, Jörg, 2003. "Bilateral equilibrium exchange rates of EU accession countries against the euro," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    15. Eduard Baumöhl & Štefan Lyócsa & Tomáš Výrost, 2011. "Volatility Regimes in Macroeconomic Time Series: The Case of the Visegrad Group," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 530-544, December.
    16. Ayala, Astrid & Blazsek, Szabolcs, 2013. "Structural breaks in public finances in Central and Eastern European countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 45-60.
    17. Zoican, Marius Andrei, 2009. "The quest for monetary integration – the Hungarian experience," MPRA Paper 17286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Astrid Ayala & Szabolcs Blazsek, 2012. "How has the financial crisis affected the fiscal convergence of Central and Eastern Europe to the Eurozone?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 471-476, March.
    19. Kocenda, Evzen & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "Macroeconomic sources of foreign exchange risk in new EU members," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2164-2173, November.
    20. Maria E. de Boyrie & Roger Johns, 2013. "The effects of trade agreements on the growth of major Latin American economies," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 377-397, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; exchange rate; Transition; Structural change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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