IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/2097.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations

Author

Listed:
  • Makris, M.
  • Toxvaerd, F.

Abstract

This paper analyzes equilibrium social distancing behavior in a model where pharmaceutical innovations, such as effective vaccines and treatments, are anticipated to arrive in the future. Once such an innovation arrives, costly social distancing can be greatly reduced. We characterize how the anticipation of such innovations influences the pre-innovation path of social distancing. We show that when vaccines are anticipated, equilibrium social distancing is ramped up as the arrival date approaches to increase the probability of reaching the post- innovation phase in the susceptible state. In contrast, under anticipated treatment, equilibrium social distancing is completely phased out by the time of arrival. We compare the equilibrium paths with the socially optimal counterparts and discuss policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Makris, M. & Toxvaerd, F., 2020. "Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2097, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2097
    Note: fmot2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2097.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rowthorn, Robert & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2012. "The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    3. Bognanni, Mark & Hanley, Doug & Kolliner, Daniel & Mitman, Kurt, 2020. "Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model," IZA Discussion Papers 13797, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Stephen Kissler & Flavio Toxvaerd, 2021. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.
    5. Caputo,Michael R., 2005. "Foundations of Dynamic Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521842723, January.
    6. Miltiadis Makris, 2020. "Covid and Social Distancing with a Heterogenous Population," Studies in Economics 2002, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. Flavio Toxvaerd, 2019. "Rational Disinhibition And Externalities In Prevention," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1737-1755, November.
    8. Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. David McAdams, 2020. "Nash SIR: An Economic-Epidemiological Model of Strategic Behavior During a Viral Epidemic," Papers 2006.10109, arXiv.org.
    10. Toxvaerd, F.M.O, 2020. "Equilibrium Social Distancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Robin Y. Teng & Elvira P. Lara-Tuprio & Joselito T. Sescon & Cymon Kayle Lubangco & Rolly Czar Joseph T. Castillo & Mark Anthony C. Tolentino & Maria Regina Justina E. Estuar & Lenard Paulo V., 2024. "Assessing economic losses with COVID-19 integrated models: a retrospective analysis," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Romans Pancs, 2024. "A vaccine auction," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 763-780, December.
    3. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    4. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Auld, M. Christopher & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2021. "The Great Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout: Behavioural And Policy Responses," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 257, pages 14-35, August.
    7. Joshua S. Gans, 2023. "Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports, And The Demand For Vaccination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 641-652, May.
    8. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccination and Financial Frictions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 216-242, March.
    9. Christopher Avery, 2024. "The economics of social distancing and vaccination," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 781-812, December.
    10. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    11. Christopher Avery, 2021. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 29463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. So Kubota, 2021. "The macroeconomics of COVID-19 exit strategy: the case of Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 651-682, October.
    13. McAdams, David & Song, Yangbo & Zou, Dihan, 2023. "Equilibrium social activity during an epidemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Lepetit, Antoine & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2022. "The limited power of monetary policy in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Carbonero, Francesco & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Labour and technology at the time of Covid-19. Can artificial intelligence mitigate the need for proximity?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 765, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    16. Datta, Soumya & C. Saratchand, 2021. "On the Macrodynamics of COVID-19 Vaccination," Working Papers 21/352, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    17. Toxvaerd, Flavio & Rowthorn, Robert, 2022. "On the management of population immunity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    18. Andersson, Ola & Campos-Mercade, Pol & Meier, Armando N. & Wengström, Erik, 2021. "Anticipation of COVID-19 vaccines reduces willingness to socially distance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. George Kapetanios & Nora Neuteboom & Feiko Ritsema & Alexia Ventouri, 2022. "How did consumers react to the COVID‐19 pandemic over time?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 961-993, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    2. Rowthorn, Robert & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2012. "The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gans, Joshua Samuel, 2020. "The Economic Consequences of R=1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics," SocArXiv yxdc5, Center for Open Science.
    4. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    5. Brotherhood, Luiz & Cavalcanti, Tiago & Da Mata, Daniel & Santos, Cezar, 2022. "Slums and pandemics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Stephen Kissler & Flavio Toxvaerd, 2021. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.
    7. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    9. Yasushi Iwamoto, 2021. "Welfare economics of managing an epidemic: an exposition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 537-579, October.
    10. Peter Flaschel & Giorgos Galanis & Daniele Tavani & Roberto Veneziani, 2021. "Pandemics and Aggregate Demand: a Framework for Policy Analysis," Working Papers PKWP2025, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    11. Dasaratha, Krishna, 2023. "Virus dynamics with behavioral responses," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    12. Bradley, Jake & Ruggieri, Alessandro & Spencer, Adam Hal, 2021. "Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Glenn Ellison, 2024. "Implications of heterogeneous SIR models for analyses of COVID-19," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 28(4), pages 651-687, December.
    14. Acurio Vásconez, Verónica & Damette, Olivier & Shanafelt, David W., 2023. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Goenka, Aditya & Liu, Lin & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2021. "SIR economic epidemiological models with disease induced mortality," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    16. Aditya Goenka & Lin Liu & Manh-Hung Nguyen, 2021. "Modeling optimal quarantines with waning immunity," Discussion Papers 21-10, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    17. Glover, Andrew & Heathcote, Jonathan & Krueger, Dirk & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2023. "Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 34-59.
    18. Fabrizio Adriani, 2020. "Social distance, speed of containment, and crowding in/out in a network model of contagion," Discussion Papers 2020-10, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    19. Brotherhood, Luiz & Kircher, Philipp & Santos, Cezar & Tertilt, Michele, 2024. "Optimal Age-based Policies for Pandemics: An Economic Analysis of Covid-19 and Beyond," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2024012, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    20. Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2021. "Contacts, Altruism and Competing Externalities," CEPR Discussion Papers 15903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic epidemiology; social distancing; pharmaceutical interventions; vaccination; treatment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2097. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.