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On the Management of Population Immunity

Author

Listed:
  • Toxvaerd, F.
  • Rowthorn, R.

Abstract

This paper considers a susceptible-infected-recovered type model of infectious diseases, such as COVID-19 or swine flu, in which costly treatment or vaccination confers immunity on recovered individuals. Once immune, individuals indirectly protect the remaining susceptibles, who benefit from a measure of herd immunity. Treatment and vaccination directly induce such herd immunity, which builds up over time. Optimal treatment is shown to involve intervention at early stages of the epidemic, while optimal vaccination defers intervention to later stages. Thus, while treatment and vaccination have superficial similarities, their effects and desirability at different stages of the epidemic are radically different. Equilibrium vaccination is qualitatively similar to socially optimal vaccination, while equilibrium treatment differs in nature from socially optimal treatment. The optimal policies are compared to traditional non-economic public health interventions which rely on herd immunity thresholds.

Suggested Citation

  • Toxvaerd, F. & Rowthorn, R., 2020. "On the Management of Population Immunity," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2080, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:2080
    Note: fmot2, rer3
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    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe2080.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rowthorn, Robert & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2012. "The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Stephen Kissler & Flavio Toxvaerd, 2021. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 321-338, September.
    3. Goldman Steven Marc & Lightwood James, 2002. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Barrett, Scott & Hoel, Michael, 2007. "Optimal disease eradication," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 627-652, October.
    5. Jeffrey Ely & Andrea Galeotti & Jakub Steiner, 2021. "Rotation as Contagion Mitigation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(5), pages 3117-3126, May.
    6. Scott Barrett, 2003. "Global Disease Eradication," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 591-600, 04/05.
    7. Mark Gersovitz & Jeffrey S. Hammer, 2004. "The Economical Control of Infectious Diseases," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 1-27, January.
    8. Boulier Bryan L. & Datta Tejwant S. & Goldfarb Robert S, 2007. "Vaccination Externalities," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, May.
    9. Auld, M. Christopher, 2003. "Choices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 361-377, May.
    10. Francis, Peter J., 1997. "Dynamic epidemiology and the market for vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 383-406, February.
    11. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    12. Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Policy responses > Vaccination

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    Cited by:

    1. Makris, M. & Toxvaerd, F., 2020. "Great Expectations: Social Distancing in Anticipation of Pharmaceutical Innovations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2097, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    3. Carmen Camacho & Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, 2023. "Antivax and inequality," Working Papers hal-03693126, HAL.
    4. Toxvaerd, F.M.O, 2020. "Equilibrium Social Distancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2021, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Auld, M. Christopher & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2021. "The Great Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout: Behavioural And Policy Responses," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 257, pages 14-35, August.
    6. Joshua S. Gans, 2023. "Vaccine Hesitancy, Passports, And The Demand For Vaccination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 641-652, May.
    7. Rowthorn, Robert & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2012. "The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Christopher Avery, 2021. "A Simple Model of Social Distancing and Vaccination," NBER Working Papers 29463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fezzi, Carlo & Fanghella, Valeria, 2021. "Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: Insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Nikhil Vellodi & Joshua Weiss, 2021. "Optimal Vaccine Policies: Spillovers and Incentives," Working Paper 21-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. Acurio Vásconez, Verónica & Damette, Olivier & Shanafelt, David W., 2023. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Charles Shaw & Silvio Vanadia, 2022. "Utilitarianism on the front lines: COVID-19, public ethics, and the "hidden assumption" problem," Papers 2205.01957, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic epidemiology; herd immunity; treatment; vaccination; externalities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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