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Virus Dynamics with Behavioral Responses

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  • Krishna Dasaratha

Abstract

Motivated by epidemics such as COVID-19, we study the spread of a contagious disease when behavior responds to the disease's prevalence. We extend the SIR epidemiological model to include endogenous meeting rates. Individuals benefit from economic activity, but activity involves interactions with potentially infected individuals. The main focus is a theoretical analysis of contagion dynamics and behavioral responses to changes in risk. We obtain a simple condition for when public-health interventions or variants of a disease will have paradoxical effects on infection rates due to risk compensation. Behavioral responses are most likely to undermine public-health interventions near the peak of severe diseases.

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  • Krishna Dasaratha, 2020. "Virus Dynamics with Behavioral Responses," Papers 2004.14533, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.14533
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Abiodun Dada, 2020. "COVID-19 Outbreak and Behavioral Maladjustments: A Shift from a Highly Globalized World to a Strange World of Unique Isolationism," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(4), pages 43-58.
    2. Davide Bosco & Luca Portoghese, 2024. "Complementarity, Congestion and Information Design in Epidemics with Strategic Social Behaviour," DEM Working Papers Series 218, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    3. Martin F Quaas & Jasper N Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A Drupp & Till Requate, 2021. "The social cost of contacts: Theory and evidence for the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-29, March.
    4. Martin F. Quaas & Jasper N. Meya & Hanna Schenk & Björn Bos & Moritz A. Drupp & Till Requate, 2020. "The Social Cost of Contacts: Theory and Evidence for the Covid-19 Pandemic in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8347, CESifo.
    5. Carnehl, Christoph & Fukuda, Satoshi & Kos, Nenad, 2023. "Epidemics with behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    6. Alessandro Ramponi & Maria Elisabetta Tessitore, 2024. "Optimal Social and Vaccination Control in the SVIR Epidemic Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, March.

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