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The macroeconomic impact of Trump

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Born
  • Gernot J. Müller
  • Moritz Schularick
  • Petr Sedláček

Abstract

Donald Trump was the President of the United States from January 2017 to January 2021. During that time, except for the period since spring 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on economic activity, the US economy has been doing very well according to key indicators like the unemployment rate and GDP growth. Does Trump deserve credit for the booming economy? To address this question, we develop a counterfactual scenario for how the US economy would have evolved without Trump – we let a matching algorithm determine which combination of other economies best resembles the pre-election path of the US economy. We then compare the performance of the US economy during Trump’s Presidency to this synthetic “doppelganger”. There is little evidence for a Trump effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Born & Gernot J. Müller & Moritz Schularick & Petr Sedláček, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of Trump," Policy Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5-6), pages 580-591, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:cposxx:v:42:y:2021:i:5-6:p:580-591
    DOI: 10.1080/01442872.2021.1909718
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    3. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CEPR Discussion Papers 18306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Wysocki, Maciej & Wojcik, Cezary & Freytag, Andreas, 2024. "Populists and fiscal policy: The case of Poland," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
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    6. Sergei Guriev, 2020. "Labor market performance and the rise of populism," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 479-479, July.
    7. Bibek Adhikari, 2022. "A Guide to Using the Synthetic Control Method to Quantify the Effects of Shocks, Policies, and Shocking Policies," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 67(1), pages 46-63, March.
    8. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Patrick Christian Harms, 2020. "Better off without the Euro? A Structural VAR Assessment of European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1907, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Michal Brzezinski & Katarzyna Sałach‐Dróżdż, 2024. "The short‐term macroeconomic impact of populism: A case study of Poland," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 832-867, July.
    10. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2023. "The effect of populism on high-skilled migration: Evidence from inventors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
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    13. Brunhart, Andreas & Geiger, Martin, 2022. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: Goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015," EconStor Preprints 266362, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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