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Unravelling Trade Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote

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  • Javorcik, Beata
  • Kett, Ben
  • Stapleton, Katherine
  • O'Kane, Layla

Abstract

This paper uses high frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the Brexit referendum on labour demand between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to the threat of trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports saw a differential decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Javorcik, Beata & Kett, Ben & Stapleton, Katherine & O'Kane, Layla, 2019. "Unravelling Trade Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote," CEPR Discussion Papers 14222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14222
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    Cited by:

    1. Rachel Griffith & Peter Levell & Agnes Norris Keiller, 2021. "Potential Consequences of Post‐Brexit Trade Barriers for Earnings Inequality in the UK," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 839-862, October.
    2. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Balgova, Maria & Qian, Matthias, 2020. "Flexible Work Arrangements in Low Wage Jobs: Evidence from Job Vacancy Data," IZA Discussion Papers 13691, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    Keywords

    Trade uncertainty; Trade policy; Labour demand; Online job adverts; Brexit; Hiring;
    All these keywords.

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