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Structural Change and the Fertility Transition

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  • Ager, Philipp
  • Herz, Benedikt

Abstract

This paper provides new insights on the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility.

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  • Ager, Philipp & Herz, Benedikt, 2019. "Structural Change and the Fertility Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 13609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13609
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    2. Kawalec Paweł, 2020. "The dynamics of theories of economic growth: An impact of Unified Growth Theory," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 6(2), pages 19-44, June.
    3. Ager, Philipp & Goñi, Marc & Salvanes, Kjell Gunnar, 2023. "Gender-biased technological change: Milking machines and the exodus of women from farming," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 16/2023, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    4. Chan, Jeff, 2024. "The long-run effects of childhood exposure to market access shocks: Evidence from the US railroad network expansion," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Yuzuru Kumon & Mohamed Saleh, 2023. "The Middle‐Eastern marriage pattern? Malthusian dynamics in nineteenth‐century Egypt," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1231-1258, November.
    6. Stefan Bauernschuster & Michael Grimm & Cathy M. Hajo, 2023. "The Impact of Margaret Sanger’s Birth Control Clinics on Early 20th Century U.S. Fertility and Mortality," CESifo Working Paper Series 10421, CESifo.
    7. Yung-Yu Tsai & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2022. "The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence fromAdministrative Data on Lottery Winners," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 22-A007, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
    8. Yung-Yu Tsai & Hsing-Wen Han & Kuang-Ta Lo & Tzu-Ting Yang, 2022. "The Effect of Financial Resources on Fertility: Evidence from Administrative Data on Lottery Winners," Papers 2212.06223, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    9. Yuri Barreto & Rodrigo Oliveira, 2022. "The unintended long-run impacts of agro-terrorism in Brazil," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-175, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility transition; Structural change; Industrialization; Agricultural income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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