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Quantity-quality trade-off in Northeast China during the Qing dynasty

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Bai

    (the University of Tokyo)

  • Yanjun Li

    (Hitotsubashi University)

  • Pak Hung Lam

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

We paint a detailed picture of whether the trade-off between human capital and fertility decisions was shaped in a pre-industrial society during the Qing dynasty. Using data from the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset-Liaoning (CMGPD-LN), we investigate 16,328 adult males born between 1760 and 1880 in Northeast China. We control for birth-order effects and for a rich set of individual-, parental-, household-, and village-level characteristics in regression analyses on individuals from different household categories (elite vs. non-elite households). Our findings suggest that sibship size, as instrumented by twins at last birth, starts to have a substantial negative effect on the probability of receiving an education, indicating the emergence of a child quantity-quality trade-off for large parts of the population belonging to the Eight Banner System in Liaoning around the mid-Qing dynasty. Our results provide supportive evidence for the unified growth theory, showing that the decreased fertility rates in pre-transition China could be a result of rational behaviors perpetuated by households in response to higher educational returns and accessibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Bai & Yanjun Li & Pak Hung Lam, 2023. "Quantity-quality trade-off in Northeast China during the Qing dynasty," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1657-1694, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:36:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s00148-022-00933-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-022-00933-x
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