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Take It to the Limit? The Effects of Household Leverage Caps

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  • Irani, Rustom M
  • van Bekkum, Sjoerd
  • Gabarro, Marc
  • Peydró, José-Luis

Abstract

We analyze the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy at the household-level. For identification, we exploit administrative Dutch tax-return and property ownership data linked to the universe of housing transactions, and the introduction of a mortgage loan-to-value limit. The regulation reduces mortgage leverage, with bunching in its limit. Ex-ante more-affected households substantially reduce overall leverage and debt servicing costs but consume greater liquidity to satisfy the regulation. Improvements in household solvency result in less financial distress and, given negative idiosyncratic shocks, better liquidity management. However, fewer households transition from renting into ownership. All of these effects are stronger for liquidity-constrained households.

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  • Irani, Rustom M & van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Gabarro, Marc & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Take It to the Limit? The Effects of Household Leverage Caps," CEPR Discussion Papers 13503, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13503
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    Cited by:

    1. José-Luis Peydró & Francesc R. Tous & Jagdish Tripathy & Arzu Uluc, 2020. "Macroprudential policy, mortgage cycles and distributional effects: Evidence from the UK," Economics Working Papers 1725, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Georgescu, Oana-Maria & Martín, Diego Vila, 2021. "Do macroprudential measures increase inequality? Evidence from the euro area household survey," Working Paper Series 2567, European Central Bank.
    3. Karapetyan, A. & Kværner, Jens & Rohrer, Maximilian, 2024. "Inefficient regulation: Mortgages versus total credit," Other publications TiSEM f1611bef-5be9-46fc-8a3e-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Katharina Bergant & Matteo Crosignani & Tim Eisert & Fergal Mccann, 2022. "The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2533-2575, October.
    5. Saha, Asish & Rooj, Debasis & Sengupta, Reshmi, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy and mortgage leverage decisions—Evidence from micro data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1430-1444.
    6. Braggion, Fabio & Manconi, Alberto & Zhu, Haikun, 2023. "Household credit and regulatory arbitrage: Evidence from online marketplace lending," Other publications TiSEM 9fbc0f2e-26f5-414f-8384-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Gong, Yifan & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2024. "Does space matter? The case of the housing expenditure cap," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Jurre Thiel & Henrik Zaunbrecher, 2023. "Mortgage Debt Limits and Buy-to-Let Investors: A Structural Model of Housing with an Endogenous Rental Sector," CPB Discussion Paper 449, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. Laufer, Steven & Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan, 2021. "The effect of LTV-based risk weights on house prices: Evidence from an Israeli macroprudential policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik, 2022. "Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures and Credit Growth: How Biased is the Existing Literature?," Working Papers 2022/8, Czech National Bank.
    12. Katja Neugebauer, 2021. "Assessing the effectiveness of the Portuguese borrower-based measure in the Covid-19 context," Working Papers w202110, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Kelly, Robert & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "A Measure of Bindingness in the Irish Mortgage Market," Financial Stability Notes 12/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    14. Calani, Mauricio & Paillacar, Manuel, 2022. "The pass-through of loan-loss-provisioning on mortgage lending: Evidence from a regulatory change," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    15. Knut Are Aastveit & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2021. "The household effects of mortgage regulation," Working Papers No 07/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Barasinska, Nataliya & Ludwig, Johannes & Vogel, Edgar, 2021. "The impact of borrower-based instruments on household vulnerability in Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Sonia Gilbukh & Andrew Haughwout & Rebecca J. Landau & Joseph Tracy, 2023. "The price‐to‐rent ratio: A macroprudential application," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 503-532, March.
    18. Abreu, Daniel & Félix, Sónia & Oliveira, Vitor & Silva, Fátima, 2024. "The impact of a macroprudential borrower-based measure on households’ leverage and housing choices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; Residential mortgages; Solvency vs. liquidity tradeoff; Household leverage; Loan-to-value ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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