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To Buy or Not to Buy: Consumer Constraints in the Housing Market

Author

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  • Andreas Fuster
  • Basit Zafar

Abstract

We use a strategic household survey to study the sensitivity of intended homeownership decisions to financing constraints. We find that the average stated likelihood of buying a home is strongly sensitive to the size of the required down payment, which we vary exogenously across three scenarios. This sensitivity is particularly high for respondents that appear more liquidity constrained based on observable characteristics (including current renters, or owners with low savings or low home equity). For renters, expectations of future rent inflation and of improvements to their personal financial situation also predict intention to buy.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2016. "To Buy or Not to Buy: Consumer Constraints in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 636-640, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:636-40
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161086
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Sejeong & Hilber, Christian A.L. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "Do long-distance moves discourage homeownership? Evidence from England," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    3. Kasper Kragh Balke & Markus Karlman & Karin Kinnerud, 2024. "Winners and Losers from Property Taxation," Working Papers 04/2024, Centre for Household Finance and Macroeconomic Research (HOFIMAR), BI Norwegian Business School.
    4. Christian A. L. Hilber & Olivier Schoni, 2022. "Housing policy and affordable housing," CEP Occasional Papers 56, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Goodman, Sarena & Isen, Adam & Yannelis, Constantine, 2021. "A day late and a dollar short: Liquidity and household formation among student borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1301-1323.
    6. Leth-Petersen, Søren & Lee, Minjoon & Caplin, Andrew & Shapiro, Matthew D. & Sæverud, Johan, 2022. "How Worker Productivity and Wages Grow with Tenure and Experience: The Firm Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 17545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Armantier, Olivier & Sbordone, Argia & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Williams, John C., 2022. "A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 82-101.
    8. Serafin J. Grundl & You Suk Kim, 2019. "The Marginal Effect of Government Mortgage Guarantees on Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. John Ameriks & Joseph Briggs & Andrew Caplin & Minjoon Lee & Matthew D. Shapiro & Christopher Tonetti, 2020. "Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 174-209, January.
    10. Matteo Benetton & Marianna Kudlyak & John Mondragon, 2022. "Dynastic Home Equity," Working Paper Series 2022-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Sjoerd Van Bekkum & Marc Gabarro & Rustom M. Irani & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Take It to the limit? The effects of household leverage caps," Economics Working Papers 1682, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2022.
    12. Mavropoulos, Antonios & Xiong, Qizhou, 2019. "Housing consumption and macroprudential policies in Europe: An ex ante evaluation," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2019.
    13. Kristian Blickle & Martin Brown, 2019. "Borrowing Constraints, Home Ownership and Housing Choice: Evidence from Intra‐Family Wealth Transfers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 539-580, March.
    14. Andra C. Ghent & Kristian R. Miltersen & Walter N. Torous, 2020. "Second Mortgages: Valuation and Implications for the Performance of Structured Financial Products," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1234-1273, December.
    15. Duca, John V., 2017. "The Great Depression versus the Great Recession in the U.S.: How fiscal, monetary, and financial polices compare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 50-64.
    16. Blickle, Kristian & Brown, Martin, 2016. "Liquidity Constraints, Wealth Transfers and Home Ownership," Working Papers on Finance 1618, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    17. Botsch, Matthew J. & Morris, Stephen D., 2021. "Job loss risk, expected mobility, and home ownership," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    18. Erik Hembre & Stephanie Moulton & Matthew Record, 2021. "Low‐Income Homeownership and the Role of State Subsidies: A Comparative Analysis of Mortgage Outcomes," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 78-106, January.
    19. Mi Diao & Yi Fan & Tien Foo Sing, 2019. "Demand Restrictions and Asymmetric Risk Behaviors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 131-167.
    20. Grundl, Serafin & Kim, You Suk, 2021. "The marginal effect of government mortgage guarantees on homeownership," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-89.
    21. Antonio Gargano & Marco Giacoletti & Elvis Jarnecic, 2023. "Local Experiences, Search, and Spillovers in the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1015-1053, April.
    22. Kinghan, Christina & McCarthy, Yvonne & O’Toole, Conor, 2022. "How do macroprudential loan-to-value restrictions impact first time home buyers? A quasi-experimental approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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