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Systemic risk from real estate and macro-prudential regulation

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  • Franklin Allen
  • Elena Carletti

Abstract

There is considerable evidence that boom and bust cycles in real estate are the primary cause of financial crises. This paper develops a model of real estate pricing based on rational behaviour with two regimes. In 'normal times' prices of housing units are determined by the consumers who live in them and are equal to the discounted stream of housing services. In 'boom and bust times' speculators find it profitable to borrow from banks and enter the market. There is an agency problem because banks are unable to fully assess the risk that the speculators are taking and this leads to risk shifting and asset substitution. The result is a bubble in real estate prices in that they are higher than the discounted stream of housing services during the boom phase. This model is then used as the basis for analysing macro-prudential polices designed to prevent the occurrence of such bubbles. These measures include monetary policy, fiscal tools such as real estate transfer taxes, and annual real estate taxes and banking regulation such as restrictions on loan-to-value ratios, countercyclical capital requirements and loan provisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2013. "Systemic risk from real estate and macro-prudential regulation," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 28-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:injbaf:v:5:y:2013:i:1/2:p:28-48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mikhail Stolbov & Maria Shchepeleva, 2023. "Sentiment-based indicators of real estate market stress and systemic risk: international evidence," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 355-382, September.
    4. Kaliyev Kalizhan Sagatbekovich & Mira Nurmakhanova, 2023. "Bank industry business modeling in economies of transition," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(11), pages 1-19, November.
    5. M. Dietsch & C. Welter-Nicol, 2014. "Do LTV and DSTI caps make banks more resilient?," Débats économiques et financiers 13, Banque de France.
    6. Yi Wu & Yunong Li, 2018. "Impact of government intervention in the housing market: evidence from the housing purchase restriction policy in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 691-705, February.
    7. Sjoerd Van Bekkum & Marc Gabarro & Rustom M. Irani & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Take It to the limit? The effects of household leverage caps," Economics Working Papers 1682, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2022.
    8. Janusz Sobieraj & Dominik Metelski, 2021. "Testing Housing Markets for Episodes of Exuberance: Evidence from Different Polish Cities," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-29, September.
    9. Yufei Cao, 2021. "Measuring systemic risk and dependence structure between real estates and banking sectors in China using a CoVaR‐copula method," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5930-5947, October.
    10. José García-Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a Macroprudential Tool: A Precautionary Tale," Working Papers 1008, Barcelona School of Economics.
    11. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Duygun, Meryem & Vioto, Davide, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 related policy interventions on international systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    12. José Garcia Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a macroprudential tool: a precautionary tale," Economics Working Papers 1592, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Hikmet Akyol & Selim Basar, 2024. "Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(74-1), pages 59-98, June.
    14. Guo, Wen-Chung & Tseng, Ping-Lun, 2023. "COVID-19, bank risk, and capital regulation: The aggregate shock and social distancing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 155-173.
    15. Martin Hoesli & Stanimira Milcheva & Alex Moss, 2020. "Is Financial Regulation Good or Bad for Real Estate Companies? – An Event Study," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 369-407, October.
    16. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

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