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The sustainability of fiscal policy: evidence from a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries

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  • Christophe Ehrhart
  • Matthieu Llorca

    (LEG - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article aims at assessing the sustainability of fiscal policies in a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries, namely Egypt, Israel, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. First, using panel data unit-root tests proposed by Im et al. (2003), Maddala and Wu (1999), and Choi (2001), econometric findings reveal that the variables of public expenditure, revenue and domestic debt in level are not stationary. However, employing panel cointegration tests designed by Pedroni (1999), it is found that government spending and revenue are cointegrated. This implies that fiscal policies in these countries are sustainable in the long run, i.e. they are consistent with inter-temporal budget balance in accordance with the present-value approach.
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Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Ehrhart & Matthieu Llorca, 2008. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: evidence from a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries," Post-Print halshs-00338063, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00338063
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850600749156
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William J. Crowder, 1997. "The U.S. Intertemporal Budget Constraint: Restoring Equilibrium Through Increased Revenues or Decreased Spending?," Macroeconomics 9702002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 1997.
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    6. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chow, Sheung Chi, 2013. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: A group-mean panel estimator approach," MPRA Paper 57808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Amir Kia & Norman Gardner, 2009. "Analyzing the Fiscal Process under a Stochastic Environment: Evidence from Egypt," Working Papers 475, Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2009.
    3. Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Xu-Zhao, 2014. "Is fiscal policy stationary in China? A regional study by local government," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 492-499.
    4. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Srđan Redžepagić & Matthieu Llorca, 2007. "Does Politics Matter in the Conduct of Fiscal Policy? Political Determinants of the Fiscal Sustainability: Evidence from Seven Individual Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC)," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(4), pages 489-500, December.
    6. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2010. "Mean Reversion Of The Fiscal Conduct In 24 Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 302-325, July.
    7. Chin-Hong Puah Author_Email: chpuah@feb.unimas.my & Evan Lau & Hui-Fern Teo, 2011. "Testing Budget Sustainability In Sarawak State," 2nd International Conference on Business and Economic Research (2nd ICBER 2011) Proceeding 2011-221, Conference Master Resources.
    8. Amir KIA, 2009. "Analyzing the Fiscal Process Under a Stochastic Environment: Evidence From Egypt," EcoMod2009 21500053, EcoMod.
    9. Zeineb Gouasmi & Houda Haffoudhi, 2020. "Analysis of Sustainability of Fiscal Policy and Democratic Transition: Case of Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(2), pages 512-529, June.
    10. Jacobo Campo-Robledo & Luis Melo-Velandia, 2015. "Sustainability of Latin American fiscal deficits: a panel data approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 889-907, November.
    11. Samia Omrane Belguith & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability in Tunisia: Empirical Evidence Estimating Time-Varying Parameters," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(2), pages 550-560, June.
    12. Paul Alagidede & George Tweneboah, 2015. "On the Sustainability and Synchronization of Fiscal Policy in Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 52(2), pages 213-240, November.
    13. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu, 2020. "Do fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability in South Africa?: A Markov-switching approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-163, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Alifatussaadah, Ardiana & Primariesty, Anindya Diva & Soleh, Agus Mohamad & Andriansyah, Andriansyah, 2019. "Nowcasting Indonesia's GDP Growth: Are Fiscal Data Useful?," MPRA Paper 105252, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jacobo Campo Robledo & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia, 2011. "How Sustainable are Latin American Fiscal Deficits: A Panel Data Approach," Borradores de Economia 679, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Glavaški & Emilija Beker Pucar, 2019. "Fiscal Sustainability in Flow Model: Panel Cointegration Approach for the EU-28," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 15-24, August.

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