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The sustainability of fiscal policy in southern African countries–a comparative empirical perspective

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  • Michał Mackiewicz

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of the paper is to assess the fiscal sustainability of nine southern African countries that belong to the Southern African Development Community. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, the author performs a novel time-varying analysis of fiscal sustainability in southern African countries. Findings - The authors found that in Zimbabwe and Namibia, the formal condition of solvency was not fulfilled, resulting in the explosive growth of debt during the recent slowdown. In contrast, Angola, Botswana and Malawi prove to run sustainable fiscal policies, and they were also fiscally invulnerable to the recent unfavourable economic developments in Africa. For the rest of the countries in the sample (Eswatini, Lesotho, South Africa and Zambia), the results are mixed. Originality/value - In the existing literature, there is abundance of empirical evidence concerning fiscal sustainability in European and American countries. In contrast, there is strikingly little knowledge concerning this phenomenon in African countries. The authors tried to fill this gap using a novel, time-varying approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Mackiewicz, 2021. "The sustainability of fiscal policy in southern African countries–a comparative empirical perspective," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(2), pages 337-350, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijoemp:ijoem-06-2020-0696
    DOI: 10.1108/IJOEM-06-2020-0696
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    2. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu & Izabella Szakálné Kanó, 2024. "Primary surplus dynamics and fiscal sustainability in sub-saharan African countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 499-519, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Southern Africa; Public debt; Fiscal sustainability; C12; C22; E62; H63;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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