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El Potencial Impacto del Aprendizaje de Máquinas en el Diseño de las Políticas Públicas en Colombia: Una década de experiencias

Author

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  • Riascos Villegas, Alvaro

    (Universidad de los Andes)

Abstract

Este texto recopila diez años de experiencias en el desarrollo de modelos de aprendizaje de máquinas para el sector público colombiano. Las principales aplicaciones se enfocan en la salud pública y la seguridad ciudadana. En el primer caso, se muestra cómo mejorar considerablemente la fórmula de ajuste de riesgo de la Unidad de Pago por Capitación (UPC) y cómo construir un modelo de decisión para la prevención de hospitalizaciones innecesarias, como consecuencia de visitas médicas domiciliarias costo-efectivas. En el segundo caso, se identifica el efecto causal de la presencia de la policía en un cuadrante de Bogotá y su incidencia en el crimen. Para ello, se estiman las elasticidades de la presencia policial con respecto al crimen, las elasticidades cruzadas (efectos indirectos sobre otros cuadrantes) y el impacto de la reasignación óptima de la policía en la ciudad. Además, se describe una metodología para descubrir la verdadera tasa de criminalidad en Bogotá y se estima el subreporte de estos eventos. Por último, se presenta una breve reflexión sobre las dificultades que enfrentan los formuladores de política pública para implementar estas soluciones.

Suggested Citation

  • Riascos Villegas, Alvaro, 2025. "El Potencial Impacto del Aprendizaje de Máquinas en el Diseño de las Políticas Públicas en Colombia: Una década de experiencias," Documentos CEDE 21340, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:021340
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohsen Bayati & Mark Braverman & Michael Gillam & Karen M Mack & George Ruiz & Mark S Smith & Eric Horvitz, 2014. "Data-Driven Decisions for Reducing Readmissions for Heart Failure: General Methodology and Case Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(10), pages 1-9, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aprendizaje de máquinas; inteligencia artificial; ajuste de riesgo; crimen; política publicas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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