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Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global Macro-Financial Stability: Literature and Measurements

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Listed:
  • Martin Hodula
  • Jan Janku
  • Simona Malovana
  • Ngoc Anh Ngo

Abstract

In our paper, we provide a review of the literature to identify the main transmission channels through which geopolitical risks (GPR) influence macro-financial stability. We begin by analyzing the existing measures of geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, showing that GPR impacts economic and financial uncertainty episodically, with significant but transient spikes during major geopolitical events. The review then identifies the two principal channels through which GPR affects macro-financial stability: the financial channel, operating through increased uncertainty and heightened risk aversion, leading to shifts in investment portfolio allocations and cross-border capital flows; and the real economy channel, impacting global trade, supply chains, and commodity markets. Using data from the past two to three decades, we provide graphical analyses that confirm the findings in the literature, highlighting the episodic nature of the impact of GPR. These insights underscore the need for policymakers and financial institutions to adopt event-specific approaches to effectively mitigate the adverse effects of geopolitical risks on economic and financial systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Hodula & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Their Impact on Global Macro-Financial Stability: Literature and Measurements," Working Papers 2024/8, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2024/8
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    Keywords

    Financial stability; geopolitical risk; global economy; macro-financial impact; uncertainty shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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