IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v48y2024i3s0939362524000025.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E.
  • Hirs-Garzon, Jorge
  • Uribe, Jorge M.

Abstract

The international propagation of uncertainty shocks from the United States is not fully understood, despite extensive literature on domestic effects. This study examines the impact of U.S. financial, macroeconomic, and policy uncertainty on credit growth, stock prices, economic activity, bond yields, and inflation in five major recipients of U.S. foreign investment from 1950 to 2019. Findings highlight the pivotal role of U.S. financial uncertainty in driving global business cycles. Increased uncertainties in the U.S. financial sector negatively affect global economic activity by impeding credit and stock prices, limiting funding opportunities for firms and households worldwide. This underscores the significant influence of U.S. financial markets on global economic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "US uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets: A multi-country perspective," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:48:y:2024:i:3:s0939362524000025
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000025
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101180?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    2. Segal, Gill & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Yaron, Amir, 2015. "Good and bad uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial market implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-397.
    3. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October.
    4. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    5. Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 319-349.
    6. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    8. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
    9. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    10. Liu, Laura Xiaolei & Shu, Haibing & Wei, K.C. John, 2017. "The impacts of political uncertainty on asset prices: Evidence from the Bo scandal in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 286-310.
    11. Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
    12. Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
    13. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    14. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2019. "Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 31-46.
    15. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    16. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca, 2020. "Fragility and the effect of international uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    18. Bonciani, Dario & Roye, Björn van, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks, banking frictions and economic activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 200-219.
    19. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    20. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    21. Ambrogio Cesa‐Bianchi & Emilio Fernandez‐Corugedo, 2018. "Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 603-636, June.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    23. Julio, Brandon & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 13-26.
    24. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2017. "On measuring uncertainty and its impact on investment: Cross-country evidence from the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 161-179.
    25. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    26. Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 403-436, June.
    27. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
    28. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    29. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    30. Alessandri, Piergiorgio & Bottero, Margherita, 2020. "Bank lending in uncertain times," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    31. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
    32. Gissler, Stefan & Oldfather, Jeremy & Ruffino, Doriana, 2016. "Lending on hold: Regulatory uncertainty and bank lending standards," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 89-101.
    33. Caballero, Ricardo J & Pindyck, Robert S, 1996. "Uncertainty, Investment, and Industry Evolution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 641-662, August.
    34. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(3), pages 273-293, April.
    35. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    36. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    37. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    38. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    39. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
    40. Gete, Pedro & Melkadze, Givi, 2018. "Aggregate volatility and international dynamics. The role of credit supply," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 143-158.
    41. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Scotti, Chiara, 2016. "Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of real-activity macro-surprises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    43. Valencia, Fabián, 2017. "Aggregate uncertainty and the supply of credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 150-165.
    44. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta & Sinha, Apra, 2021. "Is uncertainty the same everywhere? Advanced versus emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    45. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-39, January.
    46. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2020. "Global effects of US uncertainty: real and financial shocks on real and financial markets," Working papers 69, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    2. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    3. Wu, Ji & Yao, Yao & Chen, Minghua & Jeon, Bang Nam, 2020. "Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Iader Giraldo & Carlos Giraldo & José E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Mario Uribe, 2023. "US uncertainty shocks, credit, production, and prices: The case of fourteen Latin American countries," Documentos de trabajo 20667, FLAR.
    5. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    6. Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat & Uribe, Jorge M., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-33.
    7. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2020. "How much did uncertainty shocks matter in the Great Depression?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 14(2), pages 283-323, May.
    8. Tosapol Apaitan & Pongsak Luangaram & Pym Manopimoke, 2022. "Uncertainty in an emerging market economy: evidence from Thailand," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 933-989, March.
    9. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    10. Eksi, Ozan & Onur Tas, Bedri Kamil, 2022. "Time-varying effect of uncertainty shocks on unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Bhanu Pratap & Nalin Priyaranjan, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty: a Google trends-based analysis for India," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1599-1625, October.
    12. Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Paper series 23-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    13. Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España.
    14. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
    15. Iván Alfaro & Nicholas Bloom & Xiaoji Lin, 2024. "The Finance Uncertainty Multiplier," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(2), pages 577-615.
    16. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    17. Jorge M. Uribe & Montserrat Guillen, 2020. "Generalized Market Uncertainty Measurement in European Stock Markets in Real Time," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Ding, Yibing & Liu, Ziyu & Liu, Dayu, 2022. "Structural news shock, financial market uncertainty and China's business fluctuations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    19. Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
    20. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 163-179.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic uncertainty; Financial uncertainty; Credit markets; Funding; Global business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:48:y:2024:i:3:s0939362524000025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.