IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v63y2022ics027553192200188x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty and shadow banking: Firm-level evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Si, Deng-Kui
  • Wan, Shen
  • Li, Xiao-Lin
  • Kong, Dongmin

Abstract

This paper identifies the causal effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the shadow banking activities of nonfinancial enterprises (NFEs) in China. Using hand-collected data on corporate shadow banking during the period of 2007–2019, we find that there is a positive effect of EPU on shadow banking activities of NFEs and a one standard deviation increase in EPU is significantly associated with a 0.0690 standard deviation rise of firms’ shadow banking business. Furthermore, the effect is more prominent in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and in firms with high external financing dependence. Financing constraints and the yield spreads between financial and real investments are the main channels through which EPU affects firms’ shadow banking business. Our findings shed fresh light on the understanding of how uncertainty regarding economic policies affects firm investment decisions and enrich the study of determinants of firm financialization.

Suggested Citation

  • Si, Deng-Kui & Wan, Shen & Li, Xiao-Lin & Kong, Dongmin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and shadow banking: Firm-level evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:63:y:2022:i:c:s027553192200188x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101802
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027553192200188X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101802?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
    3. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    4. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    5. Li, Jianjun & Hsu, Sara & Qin, Yanzhi, 2014. "Shadow banking in China: Institutional risks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-129.
    6. Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2019. "Investment risk, return gap, and financialization of non-listed non-financial firms in China⁎," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    8. Lou, Zhukun & Chen, Siyu & Yin, Wenwei & Zhang, Chuan & Yu, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm innovation: Evidence from a risk-taking perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 78-96.
    9. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    10. Dirk Czarnitzki & Hanna Hottenrott, 2011. "R&D investment and financing constraints of small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 65-83, January.
    11. An, Ping & Yu, Mengxuan, 2018. "Neglected part of shadow banking in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 211-236.
    12. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    13. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    14. Bartsch, Zachary, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and dollar-pound exchange rate return volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Liu, Zehao & Xie, Chengbo, 2021. "Liquidity, capital requirements, and shadow banking," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1379-1388.
    16. Ran Duchin, 2010. "Cash Holdings and Corporate Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 955-992, June.
    17. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    18. Deng, Kebin & Ge, Wenxia & He, Jing, 2021. "Inside debt and shadow banking," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Chen, Hongyi & Li, Ran & Tillmann, Peter, 2019. "Pushing on a string: State-owned enterprises and monetary policy transmission in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-40.
    20. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    21. Zhao, Yan & Su, Kun, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    22. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Yiming & Tu, Guoqian & Yu, Frank, 2019. "Entrusted loans: A close look at China's shadow banking system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 18-41.
    23. Gregoriou, Andros & Nguyen, Binh Duy & Nguyen, Tung Duy & Le, Huong & Hudson, Robert, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cross-border mergers and acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    24. Shaun Shuxun Wang & Jing Rong Goh & Didier Sornette & He Wang & Esther Ying Yang, 2021. "Government support for SMEs in response to COVID-19: theoretical model using Wang transform," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(3), pages 406-433, July.
    25. Yuan, Tiezhen & Wu, Ji (George) & Qin, Ni & Xu, Jian, 2022. "Being nice to stakeholders: The effect of economic policy uncertainty on corporate social responsibility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    26. Nicholas Bloom & Ian Wright & Jose Maria Barrero, 2016. "Short- and Long-run Uncertainty," 2016 Meeting Papers 1576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Li, Wanli & Su, Yueying & Wang, Kaixiu, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect cross-border M&A: Evidence from Chinese firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    28. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    29. Hou, Xiaohui & Li, Shuo & Guo, Pin & Wang, Qing, 2018. "The cost effects of shadow banking activities and political intervention: Evidence from the banking sector in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 307-318.
    30. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    31. Zhang, Guangli & Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao & Huang, Haozhi, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 439-457.
    32. Femminis, Gianluca & Martini, Gianmaria, 2011. "Irreversible investment and R&D spillovers in a dynamic duopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1061-1090, July.
    33. Ren, Xiaoyi & Shao, Huan, 2022. "Non-state shareholder governance and shadow banking business: Evidence from Chinese state-owned manufacturing enterprises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    34. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2022. "Shadow banking business and firm risk-taking: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    35. Vural-Yavaş, Çiğdem, 2020. "Corporate risk-taking in developed countries: The influence of economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    36. Tran, Quoc Trung, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cost of debt financing: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    37. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    38. Hongling Guo & Keping Wu, 2020. "Does opening high-speed railways affect the cost of debt financing? A quasi-natural experiment," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(4), pages 473-496, May.
    39. Wu, Yan & Heerink, Nico & Yu, Linhui, 2020. "Real estate boom and resource misallocation in manufacturing industries: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    40. Nai-Chun Wang & Deng-Kui Si & Chun-Feng Dong, 2022. "Social Insurance Burden and Corporate Environmental Performance: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-22, September.
    41. Lu, Yunlin & Guo, Haifeng & Kao, Erin H. & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2015. "Shadow banking and firm financing in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 40-53.
    42. Hu, Shiwei & Gong, Di, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 373-378.
    43. Li, Xuelian & Lin, Jyh-Horng, 2016. "Shadow-banking entrusted loan management, deposit insurance premium, and capital regulation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 98-109.
    44. Ghulam Abbas & Shouyang Wang, 2020. "Does macroeconomic uncertainty really matter in predicting stock market behavior? A comparative study on China and USA," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(4), pages 393-427, May.
    45. Stolbov, Mikhail & Shchepeleva, Maria, 2020. "Systemic risk, economic policy uncertainty and firm bankruptcies: Evidence from multivariate causal inference," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    46. Oya Pinar Ardic & Nataliya Mylenko & Valentina Saltane, 2012. "Access to Finance by Small and Medium Enterprises: a Cross-Country Analysis with A New Data Set," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 491-513, October.
    47. Jiang, Guohua & Lee, Charles M.C. & Yue, Heng, 2010. "Tunneling through intercorporate loans: The China experience," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-20, October.
    48. Kundu, Srikanta & Paul, Amartya, 2022. "Effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market return and volatility under heterogeneous market characteristics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 597-612.
    49. Leduc, Sylvain & Liu, Zheng, 2016. "Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 20-35.
    50. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    51. Acharya, Viral V. & Khandwala, Hemal & Sabri Öncü, T., 2013. "The growth of a shadow banking system in emerging markets: Evidence from India," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 207-230.
    52. Yuan, Mengyi & Zhang, Lin & Lian, Yonghui, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk of commercial banks: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 587-605.
    53. Fang, Sheng & Qian, Xuesong & Zou, Wei, 2020. "The empirical relation between loan risk and collateral in the shadow banking system: Evidence from China’s entrusted loan market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 42-54.
    54. Apostolakis, George N. & Floros, Christos & Gkillas, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark, 2021. "Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    55. Yaming Ma & Ziwei Wang & Feng He, 2022. "How do economic policy uncertainties affect stock market volatility? Evidence from G7 countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2303-2325, April.
    56. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    57. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Shen, Yinjie, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and banks’ loan pricing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    58. Huang, Ji, 2018. "Banking and shadow banking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 124-152.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Yongfan & Hu, Xingcun, 2024. "Shadow banking and SME investment: Evidence from China's new asset management regulations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 332-349.
    2. Liu, Tingli & Chen, Xiao & Yang, Songling, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and enterprise investment decision: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Han, Haozhe & Wang, Xingjian, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. Fedorova, Elena & Ledyaeva, Svetlana & Drogovoz, Pavel & Nevredinov, Alexandr, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and bankruptcy filings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Liu, Ding & Sun, Weihong & Xu, Liao & Zhang, Xuan, 2023. "Time-frequency relationship between economic policy uncertainty and financial cycle in China: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Huang, Jin & Jin, Yong & Duan, Yang & She, Yanling, 2023. "Do Chinese firms speculate during high economic policy uncertainty? Evidence from wealth management products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Lee, Kiryoung & Choi, Eunseon & Kim, Minki, 2023. "Twitter-based Chinese economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Alam, Ahmed W. & Farjana, Ashupta & Houston, Reza, 2023. "Firm investment steering through state-level policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    9. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Ma, Huanyu & Hao, Dapeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, financial development, and financial constraints: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 368-386.
    11. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Yu, Zhen & Li, Yuankun & Ouyang, Ziyi, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, hold-up risk and vertical integration: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xiao, Shunyi, 2021. "Policy-related risk and corporate financing behavior: Evidence from China’s listed companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 539-547.
    14. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2022. "Shadow banking business and firm risk-taking: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Liu, Jinjing & Wang, Hong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and the cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    16. Ridoy Deb Nath & Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury, 2021. "Shadow banking: a bibliometric and content analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-29, December.
    17. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Hashmi, Shujahat Haider & Bakhsh, Satar, 2022. "Non-linear nexus between economic policy uncertainty and bank lending," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 657-679.
    18. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    20. Hongjie Pan & Hong Fan, 2024. "Systemic Risk Arising from Shadow Banking and Sustainable Development: A Study of Wealth Management Products in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-26, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow banking; Economic policy uncertainty; Financing constraint; Revenue stimulus; Firm financialization; Nonfinancial enterprises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:63:y:2022:i:c:s027553192200188x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.