IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v45y2017i3d10.1007_s11293-017-9553-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Ansgar Belke

    (University of Duisburg-Essen
    Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA))

  • Daniel Gros

    (Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS))

Abstract

This paper assesses the economic implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). The basic data on trade in goods and services and investment between the two parties suggest that the cost of “Brexit” could be substantial. Trade between the UK and the EU-27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the U.S.). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. All available studies concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU-27 would bear only a disproportionally small share of the total cost, not just because it is about five times larger than the UK in economic terms, but also for fundamental reasons such as greater market power of its enterprises. Other studies on different free trade arrangements confirm the general proposition that the smaller party has more to gain from eliminating trade barriers (and more to lose from imposing them). This implies that the EU will have a stronger negotiating position.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 317-331, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:45:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11293-017-9553-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-017-9553-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11293-017-9553-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11293-017-9553-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," IZA Discussion Papers 8162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Ottaviano, Gianmarco & Pessoa, João Paulo & Sampson, Thomas & Van Reenen, John, 2014. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU," CFS Working Paper Series 472, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
    5. Martina Lawless & Edgar L. W. Morgenroth, 2019. "The product and sector level impact of a hard Brexit across the EU," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 189-207, April.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr & Fukunari Kimura & Toshihiro Okubo & Marina Steininger & Erdal Yalcin, 2017. "On the economics of an EU-Japan Free Trade Agreement," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 86.
    7. Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Austria and Switzerland – Experiences with and without EU Membership," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 11(1), pages 13-39, February.
    8. Roy, Amrita & Mathur, Somesh K., 2016. "Brexit and India–EU Free Trade Agreement," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 31(4), pages 740-773.
    9. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Campos, Nauro & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Co," CEPR Discussion Papers 9968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo.
    11. Sebastian Benz & Erdal Yalcin, 2013. "Ökonomische Effekte eines Freihandelsabkommens zwischen Japan und der EU," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(14), pages 35-40, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Tories' structural problem
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2017-07-04 18:34:41
    2. Brexit, Marxists & the state
      by chris in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2018-10-14 11:33:22

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2021. "The slowdown in trade: end of the “globalisation hype” and a return to normal?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 225-239, April.
    2. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Yang, Bo, 2021. "Are global spillovers complementary or competitive? Need for international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Emmanuel Brunet-Jailly, 2021. "Introduction: How the British-exit is Impacting the European Union?," International Studies, , vol. 58(2), pages 133-149, April.
    4. Begg Iain, 2019. "No Longer “The Economy Stupid”: How Muddled Economics Contributed to a Chaotic Brexit," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Sanguinet, Eduardo & Alvim, Augusto, 2020. "Effects of EU-MERCOSUR trade agreement on bilateral trade: the role of Brexit," Conference papers 333194, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet & Augusto Mussi Alvim, 2024. "The effects of the EU-MERCOSUR agreement on bilateral trade: the role of Brexit," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 227-249, February.
    7. Deaconu Elena-Mădălina & Pătărlăgeanu Simona Roxana & Petrescu Irina-Elena & Dinu Mihai & Sandu Andrei, 2023. "An Outline of the Links between the Sustainable Development Goals and the Transformative Elements of Formulating a Fair Agri-Food Trade Policy – A Measurable EU Achievement," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 1449-1462, July.
    8. Laura M. Werner, 2020. "Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1249-1278, March.
    9. Naser Makarem & Harjinder Singh & Nigar Sultana & Darren Henderson, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and real activities manipulation: evidence from Brexit," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1415-1440, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Crafts, Nicholas, 2016. "The Growth Effects of EU Membership for the UK: a Review of the Evidence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 280, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Alali, Walid Y. & Ellalee, Haider, 2019. "Production and Foreign Investment Affected by Brexit," EconStor Preprints 274652, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Ken Coutts & Graham Gudgin & Jordan Buchanan, 2018. "How the Economics Profession Got It Wrong on Brexit," Working Papers wp493, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    4. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    5. Petros E. Ioannatos, 2021. "Brexit or Euro for the UK? Evidence from Panel Data," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 117-138, March.
    6. Jeroen Hessel & Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2017. "Capitalising on the euro. Options for strengthening the EMU," DNB Occasional Studies 1502, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Klaus Jaffe, 2015. "Agent based simulations visualize Adam Smith's invisible hand by solving Friedrich Hayek's Economic Calculus," Papers 1509.04264, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2015.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "United Kingdom: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/169, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jacob Bundrick & Weici Yuan, 2019. "Do Targeted Business Subsidies Improve Income and Reduce Poverty? A Synthetic Control Approach," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 33(4), pages 351-375, November.
    10. Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot J. & Schularick, Moritz & Sedlacek, Petr, 2017. "The economic consequences of the Brexit Vote," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87174, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Nauro Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli & Luigi Moretti, 2015. "Norwegian Rhapsody? The Political Economy Benefits of Regional Integration," Working Papers halshs-01267252, HAL.
    12. Diop, Samba & Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," MPRA Paper 110696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    14. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "The impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Slovenian exports," Lodz Economics Working Papers 3/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    15. Beck, Roland & Di Nino, Virginia & Stracca, Livio, 2021. "Globalisation and the efficiency-equity trade-off," Working Paper Series 2546, European Central Bank.
    16. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Alma Maciulyte-Sniukiene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2018. "What Is the Evolution of Convergence in the EU? Decomposing EU Disparities up to NUTS 3 Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-37, May.
    17. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "Does the euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    18. Bano, Sayeeda & Tabbada, Jose, 2017. "The Employment Effects of Regional Integration: A Case Study of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)," 2017 Conference, October 19-20, Rotorua, New Zealand 269520, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    19. Abdullah Alhassan & Mary E. Burfisher & Mr. Julian T Chow & Ding Ding & Fabio Di Vittorio & Dmitriy Kovtun & Arnold McIntyre & Ms. Inci Ötker & Marika Santoro & Lulu Shui & Karim Youssef, 2020. "Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of its Parts? Strengthening Caribbean Regional Integration," IMF Working Papers 2020/008, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Klaudijo Klaser, 2020. "A Theory of Justice of John Rawls as Basis for European Fiscal Union," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; European Union; Free trade agreements; Trade in goods and services; FDI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:45:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11293-017-9553-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.